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Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has increasingly militarized the Black Sea region, presenting a threat to both NATO and its littoral partners, especially Ukraine and Moldova. Indeed, the region has become a testing ground for Russian hybrid warfare operations. These operations, which engage adversaries below the threshold of war, often seek to undermine civil society with tactics such as assaults on the integrity of elections, attacks on infrastruct

Europe needs to share intelligence and exploit legal “gray zones” to tackle Russia’s sanctions-busting shadow fleet. Russian shadow fleet tanker Kiwala detained off the Estonian coast between the island of Aegna and the port of Muuga, east of Tallinn, Friday, April 11, 2025. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR The fleet, hundreds of ships strong, enables Moscow to circumvent curbs on oil sales and engage in sabotage, particularly in the Baltic, posing security, environmental, and economic

Russia will step-up its shadow war on Europe in the New Year, attacking infrastructure and disrupting democracy in a bid to exploit Western disunity. Russian drone on the roof of a barn in Moldova / Source Belcy 24 In 2026, the Kremlin will seek to demonstrate that Russia retains the initiative and remains a great power despite its economic and military decline. This is designed in part to emphasize a country on the brink of historic success and to build on images of Presiden

Russia’s relentless assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and a crisis of governance promise a cold winter. But there is hope ahead. Illustrative photo. Elimination of the Consequences of Hostile Shelling of Poltava Region / Photo – Ministry of Energy of Ukraine/Zmist The Kremlin’s forces have been striking Ukraine’s energy generation and distribution facilities almost daily. Attacks on November 25 alone left more than 40,000 people without power in the Kyiv region, 20,

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin believe their autocratic political and economic systems will gradually defeat the West’s democracies. How can they be stopped? President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin / Photo: Sergei Bobylev, RIA Novosti The liberal international order, which has dominated world affairs since World War II, is now collapsing, and China and Russia appear increasingly confident that top-down dictatorial regimes will fill the void. S

The new US National Security Strategy is surprising only for those determined to ignore reality. By Edward Lucas In an ideal, imagined world, the US is a wise, friendly, and eternal mentor to its European allies. It uncomplainingly shoulders the burden of military and diplomatic leadership. It does not push its own interests too hard, whatever American voters may want.  Against the background of such wholly unrealistic assumptions, the new  US National Security Strategy  inde

Foto: Jurij Beljat poligonmedia.io US President Donald Trump’s latest bid to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days, with officials from Washington, Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe all seeking to shape the contours of a possible agreement. For now, discussion has centered on immediate matters, such as the wording of security guarantees. However, the far deeper historical roots that have long driven Russian violence

A comparative assessment of the Russian and Ukrainian wartime economies underlines that Russia’s ongoing invasion has imposed far greater costs on Ukraine by depleting its manpower , worsening its demographics , and straining the country’s financial resources . Sustained support for the Ukrainian economy is therefore crucial as Europe and the United States seek to push Putin toward the negotiating table. Ukraine Economy / Source The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune American and Eu

Kremlin success would benefit the Beijing regime in a whole number of ways, including the theft of Ukrainian military technology. What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning?  That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vlad

Developments in 2025 have highlighted the reordering of regional power relations in the South Caucasus. There is opportunity for the West, but peril too. Fuzuli international airport, called the air gate of Karabakh / Source report.az Tensions over an Azerbaijan civilian airliner destroyed by a Russian missile, the cautious rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey , and Georgia’s increasingly confrontational stance toward the European Union (EU) reflect tectonic changes in

Art can deliver a powerful geopolitical message — so be careful. By Edward Lucas Source: State Border Guard Republic of Latvia One of the pleasures of my annual visit to Venice is seeing how the countries that I know best present themselves at the Biennale, the international summer-to-autumn cultural festival that features alternately art and, this year, architecture. The current crop includes an  Estonian  exhibit on home insulation,  Lithuania  on trees,  Ukraine  on roofs,

The Kremlin has a vision for the future. It should make everyone very worried. By Gabrielė Klimaitė-Želvienė  A palm reader examines a woman’s hand and shakes her head. Something terrible and dark lurks in her future. The client sees the palmist’s frowns and becomes frightened.   “Will I get sick?”  “No,” says the palm reader.   “Will I die then?”   The old woman again shakes her head.   “So what will happen?”  “Nothing at all,” the palm reader says. “Nothing will ever change

When many US taxpayers hear about Ukraine, they ask: what’s in it for us? The story of Ukraine's largest oil company shows why helping Kyiv can put America first. Source: FREEDOM In November 2022, nine months after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine seized Ukrnafta from oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. The once-mighty petrochemical behemoth was near collapse — with just $10m in the bank, billion-dollar tax debts , and a $14m payroll it could barely meet.   Yet under reformist man

Political meddling has long hampered German intelligence and security. Not any more. By Edward Lucas Penetrated by the opposition, paralysed by legal obstacles and subject to political interference, Germany’s intelligence services were for decades seen as at best useless, and at worst outright harmful. I remember a British spook in cold-war Berlin in the 1980s joking: “If you want Gorbachev to know something quickly, tell the Germans in strict secrecy: it will be on his desk

With a bit of imagination and courage, NATO can impose immediate costs for Russia’s hybrid war operations. Source: NATO Airborne Early...

What should be Europe’s strategy as aggressive imperial powers seek to conquer territory? Ancient Greece offers some guidance. Source:...

As Europe dithers, Russia’s successful drone offensive intensifies. By Edward Lucas Source: Land Forces of Ukraine From Munich to Lviv is...

The Putin regime realizes its war of aggression will be seriously affected if financial assets are handed to Ukraine. But it’s impotent....

The EU’s renewed focus on the Black Sea has created an opportunity for Romania, Turkey and Ukraine to shape a stronger defense against...

European authorities are no longer confining their response to Russia’s shadow fleet to sanctions lists. Image: Heikki Saukkomaa /...