ANALYTICS

Russia’s relentless assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and a crisis of governance promise a cold winter. But there is hope ahead. Illustrative photo. Elimination of the Consequences of Hostile Shelling of Poltava Region / Photo – Ministry of Energy of Ukraine/Zmist The Kremlin’s forces have been striking Ukraine’s energy generation and distribution facilities almost daily. Attacks on November 25 alone left more than 40,000 people without power in the Kyiv region, 20,

Mass grave site discovered in a forest near the Ukrainian city of Izium after its recapture from Russian forces in September 2022 / Source Insider Media The recent Hollywood movie “Nuremberg” provided a timely reminder of the role played by Soviet consent in the creation and legitimacy of the International Military Tribunal established to prosecute Nazi leaders after World War II. The broad outlines of the tribunal had been agreed before the end of the war during the February

The new US National Security Strategy is surprising only for those determined to ignore reality. By Edward Lucas In an ideal, imagined world, the US is a wise, friendly, and eternal mentor to its European allies. It uncomplainingly shoulders the burden of military and diplomatic leadership. It does not push its own interests too hard, whatever American voters may want.  Against the background of such wholly unrealistic assumptions, the new  US National Security Strategy  inde

While Russia's hybrid tactics are not new, their scale and sophistication in the digital age present unprecedented challenges. By Eitvydas Bajarūnas Executive Summary Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies — disinformation, cyber, sabotage, coercion — b

Is the Baltic now a NATO lake? Changing strategic geography, and the accession of Sweden and Finland to alliance membership might make it seem so, but the reality is more fraught. NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea / Source U.S. Navy Eight of the Baltic Sea states are now in NATO, and just one littoral country, Russia, is not. That might seem a mismatch of force — the so-called NATO lake — but appearances can be deceptive, and no one should underestimate the ability of Moscow’

Foto: Jurij Beljat poligonmedia.io US President Donald Trump’s latest bid to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days, with officials from Washington, Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe all seeking to shape the contours of a possible agreement. For now, discussion has centered on immediate matters, such as the wording of security guarantees. However, the far deeper historical roots that have long driven Russian violence

Putin’s refusal to accept any peace that does not ultimately lead to the subjugation of Ukraine is nothing new. For decades the Kremlin has paired hollow diplomatic language with foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) campaigns that present Moscow as a reasonable actor while it undermines sovereign neighbours. Recent talks in Geneva between US and Ukrainian negotiators indicate tentative progress in their discussion on a potential peace agreement. Doubts ha

A comparative assessment of the Russian and Ukrainian wartime economies underlines that Russia’s ongoing invasion has imposed far greater costs on Ukraine by depleting its manpower , worsening its demographics , and straining the country’s financial resources . Sustained support for the Ukrainian economy is therefore crucial as Europe and the United States seek to push Putin toward the negotiating table. Ukraine Economy / Source The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune American and Eu

Ukraine’s setbacks are troubling but only part of the story. By Edward Lucas Consequences of enemy shelling of Ternopil (Photo: Suspilne Media) Corruption scandals in Kyiv, devastating attacks on infrastructure, the looming loss of Pokrovsk, and newly effective Russian innovation in  drone warfare  — the bad news from Ukraine keeps coming. Put the elements together and they make a bleak, even dire, picture. Ukraine is running out of soldiers, money, power supplies, and time,

The EU is doing well in some areas but as attacks rise, much more continent-wide cooperation is needed. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials The purpose of shadow warfare attacks on European countries by Russia and its proxies is multifaceted: to test the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, to destabilize societies and governments, and to provoke reactions that undermine

Art can deliver a powerful geopolitical message — so be careful. By Edward Lucas Source: State Border Guard Republic of Latvia One of the pleasures of my annual visit to Venice is seeing how the countries that I know best present themselves at the Biennale, the international summer-to-autumn cultural festival that features alternately art and, this year, architecture. The current crop includes an  Estonian  exhibit on home insulation,  Lithuania  on trees,  Ukraine  on roofs,

The Kremlin has a vision for the future. It should make everyone very worried. By Gabrielė Klimaitė-Želvienė  A palm reader examines a woman’s hand and shakes her head. Something terrible and dark lurks in her future. The client sees the palmist’s frowns and becomes frightened.   “Will I get sick?”  “No,” says the palm reader.   “Will I die then?”   The old woman again shakes her head.   “So what will happen?”  “Nothing at all,” the palm reader says. “Nothing will ever change

A screenshot from the video with a captured Indian national, Majoti Sahil Mohamed Hussein. (The 63rd Mechanized Brigade / Telegram) As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the four-year mark, Moscow is facing increasing difficulties replenishing the ranks of its invading army. With fewer Russians now prepared to volunteer, the Kremlin is seeking to recruit more foreign fighters to serve in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s colonial war. A number of recent media

Europe must harness dual-use technology to more swiftly deliver battlefield innovation. Kraken Technology Group picture Dual-use is not new, and Europe has a proud history of commercial-military innovation. In World War I, Renault adapted industrial expertise to create the pioneering FT tank , while in World War II, Ford’s UK plants pivoted to produce tanks, shipyards retooled and Bletchley Park fused government, industry and academia to crack codes and pioneer early computin

Poland’s battle against cyberattacks should be a warning and an example for the West as governments seek to counter their enemies’ hybrid tactics. Source: Embassy of the Republic of Poland in London A hospital was forced to suspend operations. A city’s water network was infiltrated . Dozens of daily cyberattacks are hammering Poland’s municipal systems.   This is the new normal in an era of irregular warfare. Officials report 20 to 50 attacks a day , with most blocked, but s

Russian drone incursions mark an acceleration in the Kremlin's hybrid war on the West. NATO members should study Ukraine's frontline labs to prepare for what comes next. Source: 427th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems "RAROG" The Russia-Ukraine conflict has radically changed the understanding of modern warfare. Aviation no longer has absolute control of the air, and advanced tanks and armored vehicles have had their vulnerability exposed by relatively inexpensive unmanned

The Kremlin’s planners prepared well for their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, building up currency reserves and later boosting growth through military spending. But the Russian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness as Moscow’s illegal war continues. For years, Russian state outlets and pro-Kremlin commentators have boasted of Russia’s great economy despite Western sanctions that greatly intensified after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In

With a bit of imagination and courage, NATO can impose immediate costs for Russia’s hybrid war operations. Source: NATO Airborne Early...

What should be Europe’s strategy as aggressive imperial powers seek to conquer territory? Ancient Greece offers some guidance. Source:...

Screenshot from a video by Belarus 1 TV channel In the early hours of September 10, as swarms of Russian drones entered Belarusian...

The Putin regime realizes its war of aggression will be seriously affected if financial assets are handed to Ukraine. But it’s impotent....

RAF Typhoons / Source: Royal Air Force Summer is usually quiet for members of the United Kingdom’s defense and national security...

A Taiwanese M1A2T Abrams US made main battle tank. / Taiwan Military News Agency Over the past few years, discussions on Taiwan’s...

A summit of mostly autocratic countries appears a gloomy signal for the West. But there’s a gap between China’s ambition and delivery....

Hungary’s premier has held the role in a vise-like grip for 15 years, but faces the most serious challenge yet at next-year’s election....

The tyranny and mass torture that the Kremlin is using in Ukraine today, systematic shelling and rocket attacks on civilians, resulting...

Russia’s leader aims to cherry-pick concessions from the West, while imposing Soviet-style barriers between his people and outsiders....

Once a reliable partner of the West, Georgia is now becoming a Russian-style dictatorship. The West must do more to avert this outcome....

Gasoline prices soared to record highs in Russia this week amid growing reports of fuel shortages due to an escalating Ukrainian bombing...

US tech might need to catch up if the European strategy pays off. Source: European Commission In the artificial intelligence contest, US...

A quickfire series of agreements are blazing a trail for future transatlantic defense cooperation. The XQ-58A Valkyrie first flew on 5...

The Ukrainian military claims to have conducted a groundbreaking local offensive in early July 2025, using exclusively robotic systems...

Russia is now blending cyber interference, underwater sabotage, and manipulation of maritime law to gain tactical advantage without overt...

Russia’s military engagement in Africa has grown since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in a deliberate and cost-effective strategy to...

Putin may think bombardment will force Ukrainians into capitulation, but surveys show something very different is happening. Source:...

By recognizing the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate authority, Moscow is trying to revive its waning geopolitical influence. Press...

About organizations, people, and media that promote Russian narratives and spread the influence of the aggressor state in France. On May...

Russia continues to actively advance its interests in Africa. The Kremlin is using soft power to strengthen its foothold in the region....

T he myth of the evil West, always on the verge of attacking, served Soviet leaders well for decades—and it’s back in full force in...

Coordinated Western efforts to persuade Eurasian nations to reduce ties to Russia would diminish Moscow's influence and vex the Kremlin....

The West’s private sector has still not understood the threat posed by Russian cyber intelligence groups. That’s foolish. Source:...

New legislation working its way through Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament foreshadows a harsh crackdown across Putin’s despotic state....

As the world pays more attention to Africa, two major players stand out: China and the European Union (EU). China often makes the news...

Things have changed beyond recognition for the Kremlin’s bosses as their once-formidable global network suffers one defeat after another....

The role of Russian propaganda in driving Russia’s aggression and other international crimes in Ukraine has by now been acknowledged at...

Like the Russian opposition, economic sanctions are popular but ineffective. By Edward Lucas Foto: Vladimir VELENGURIN / KP Sanctions on...

Israel’s campaign against Iran is extensive, effective, and (much like imaginative Ukrainian tactics) represents a serious warning to the...

Russia’s grip on the unrecognized Transnistrian state is weakening. No stunts, please. By Edward Lucas Source: Point.md. Could the...

President Tokayev has restored order since “Bloody January” and boosted Kazakhstan’s image, but Russia’s economic weakness and tougher US...

Source: Atlantic Council As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, the Kremlin is also rapidly escalating its hybrid war...