ANALYTICS

It’s important to distinguish between a genuine military alliance and the picture-perfect imagery of authoritarian propaganda. Source: Ria Novosti Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing on May 19-20 during a highly publicized two-day summit. The pair announced some 40 new agreements, including a symbolic “declaration on the formation of a multipolar world.” But pomp, ceremonials, and signatures aside, the summit did not see an agreeme

The war’s end will mark the start of a race to secure the peace and make the continent the author of its future. When G7 leaders gather in Évian on June 17, where they will be joined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they will confront a strategic backdrop profoundly different from a year ago. In mid-2025, the transatlantic consensus was gripped by a grim, deterministic idea: that Russia was locked into a sustainable war of attrition where time and mass inherently favored th

The economy’s two main tracks are moving in different directions. Source: Wix Russia’s wartime economy was already running on two separate tracks. Now they’re diverging even faster, and the gap is certain to widen still more. On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Europeans are increasingly speaking of Ukraine as a shield protecting the continent from Russian aggression. This recognition is certainly justified, but it also carries a risk. Amid all the talk of Ukraine’s growing military strength, there is a danger that this could encourage complacency over the country’s ability to bear the current security burden indefinitely. Changing attitudes toward Ukraine were on display at the r

Pashinyan’s victory leaves the Kremlin with the difficult choice of confrontation or something more pragmatic. Source: Nikol Pashinyan Facebook page  The parliamentary elections in Armenia ended in the incumbent prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and his party Civil Contract’s victory. Winning nearly 50% of the vote on an increased turnout, the ruling party will hold 64 seats in the 105-member National Assembly. This is enough to form a government, but it fell short of the seats

Source: Wix Europe’s electricity grids were not built for the demands now being placed on them. The proliferation of large-scale data centers has fundamentally altered the continent’s energy arithmetic. This energy demand growth has exposed a structural power deficit that European policymakers have yet to adequately address. The bloc’s planning and permitting system has been widely criticized as fragmented and ill-suited to the pace now required. Meanwhile, Ukraine, whose inf

With the US summit behind it, China is squaring up for the next defining trade battle. It’s very confident that it will win. Source: Unspash Europe and China may be heading for a trade war. The European Commission said on May 29 that its economic and security interests will require “a more robust and coherent response” to a surge in Chinese exports to the bloc. The current situation is “not sustainable,” it said. For its part, China accused the Commission of seeking a scapego

The days when Chinese industry received a free pass from the Budapest government are over. A water shortage has seen to that. Source: PAP/EPA/Zsolt Czegledi HUNGARY OUT/TVP World Hungary faces an unprecedented water crisis. There are several causes, among them the years-long campaign by Viktor Orbán’s government to lure heavily polluting and water-hungry Chinese battery factories to the country. During Orbán’s 16 years in power, he guaranteed to Chinese investors vast amounts

According to Danish state authorities, there were no major foreign influence campaigns to speak of in the lead-up to Denmark’s March 2026 parliamentary election. Local fact-checkers and journalists tracked pro-Russian narratives and fringe propaganda channels, but nothing resembling a broad, coordinated campaign with significant reach emerged. Monitoring and analysis by Defense Innovation Highway and OpenMinds of part of the Danish online information environment during the ca

Europe will struggle to defend itself against Russia without the aid of Ukraine’s battle-tested legions. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Russia’s recent missile and drone strikes and follow-on attacks against Ukraine represent a cruel exercise in signaling. Following a brief ceasefire, Russia revealed that it can breach Ukraine’s aerial defenses. By deploying an unparalleled barrage, Putin arguably sent a veiled warning to Europe that their cities and fac

Drones are powerful — and can cause chaos. Remedies are urgent to deploy them safely. Source: Jessica Tisemann / Neue Deister-Zeitung A busy commercial airport cancels all flights twice in quick succession. The trigger? Small, remote-controlled, low-flying objects. Safety concerns over drone activity and the defensive measures in place to deal with drones caused chaos this year at El Paso’s international airport. Cheap, expendable drones also dominate modern battlefields. Th

How Georgia’s billionaire Ivanishvili misread Moscow, and why Washington shouldn't reward his overtures. Bidzina Ivanishvili / Source TV Pirveli Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze flew to Yerevan in May, shook hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after years of poisonous relations, and spoke about the Middle Corridor transport and energy route. Weeks earlier, the ruling Georgian Dream party had announced the first, belated arrests of law-enforcement offic

The Kremlin’s intention to control its digital environment is not new. Even Russians’ most widely used messaging app, Telegram, was not spared from it. However, a failed 2018 effort to block the app exposed the limits of direct restriction. Despite regulatory pressure, the platform continued to operate, creating a ‘grey zone’ where even pro-government voices could express limited forms of dissent. In 2026, this phase appears to be ending. Besides blocking external platforms,

Ukraine’s mid-range strike capacity is growing and smashing Russian supply lines, with autonomous systems taking the lead. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine At the turn of 2026, Russia appeared to pose the greater mid-range threat. Its forces were striking Ukraine’s rear with drones at will, using satellite links, including Starlink, to bypass electronic warfare. It had also increased its use of cheap Molniya medium-range strike drones, with varied control

Armenia is building closer relations with the EU, underlining Russia’s diminishing influence in the South Caucasus. Source: Nikol Pashinyan on X For decades, Moscow’s power in the South Caucasus rested on military presence, conflict-management formats, energy leverage, and economic influence. This is now under visible strain. Armenia is actively engaging the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan has grown significantly more assertive in its foreign policy, while Georgia is deepenin

Source: Rumen Radev Facebook page In early May, former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev was appointed as the country’s new prime minister, potentially bringing one of Europe’s longest-running political crises in recent years to an end. Since 2021, Bulgaria has endured a prolonged period of political instability marked by fragmented parliaments, collapsing coalitions, caretaker governments, and repeated elections. The crisis culminated in the eighth parliamentary election in un

The Kremlin has long injected propaganda into the Russian educational system in order to boost the ‘patriotism’ of Russian youth. Putin’s future ‘child soldiers’ not only take part in regular flag raisings, anthem singings, and meetings with ‘heroes’ of the ‘special military operation’ (‘SVO’) in Ukraine. They also participate in drone assembly and other types of military training. Besides patriotic rituals, the authorities also indoctrinate Russian schoolkids by systematical

One of the features that makes propaganda effective is that it reshapes how people understand the world around them, turning war into ‘peace’ and lies into ‘truth’. Propaganda, disinformation, and information manipulation more generally do not work like an order from a commander which makes a person take up arms; its influence is more gradual and more insidious. The non-governmental group LingvaLexa, with the support of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and the

Ukraine’s women are central to sustaining the state, supporting the front and holding society together under the extreme pressure of Russian aggression. Photo: Daniel Kosoy / UNITED24 The country offers a striking case study of the way war reshapes the roles of women and men, not only on the battlefield, but across society, the economy, and national recovery. Approximately 100,000 women are serving in Ukraine’s armed forces out of a total of one million personnel. Around 5,50

Western nations can do more to stop criminal gangs forcing Ukrainians into sexual slavery. By Luca Iaconelli / Unsplash Amid widespread suffering and more than 180,000 documented war crimes committed by Russia during its war on Ukraine, the heightened risk of sex trafficking of Ukrainians has been largely absent from US and European policy discussions. Millions of forcibly displaced people, in particular women and children, have become increasingly vulnerable to transnationa

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approached the four-year mark in early 2026, the international media widely reported that the war had now lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison made for attention-grabbing headlines, but it was not entirely accurate. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine War did not begin in 2022; it started eight years earlier in 2014. Efforts to end the war must reflect this reality. Despite

For decades, Western defense strategy assumed that technological superiority ensured victory. That assumption proves false in modern conflict. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Conflict is being shaped less by the performance of advanced systems than by the ability to produce, sustain, and regenerate them at scale. Mass is the new buzzword, along with non-admiring references to “exquisite” high-end systems There is now a realization of a growing gap between

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials An unidentified object crosses into Lithuanian airspace from Kaliningrad and is quickly picked up by NATO radar systems. It’s small, fast, and unregistered. Shortly thereafter, three more similar objects joined in formation. NATO aircraft are scram

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

From Texas to Alberta to Catalonia, the Kremlin amplifies separatist causes abroad while jailing those who voice similar ideas inside Russia. The Kremlin routinely accuses other countries of instigating “colour revolutions” and backing separatist movements. Given the Kremlin’s well-documented flair for projection , it comes as little surprise that Moscow engages in exactly the kind of behaviour it denounces by backing separatist movements in Western countries, both openly and

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities. Over the past year, this author reviewed court records, indictments, and investigative reports to build what is probably the first open-source database of major known cryptocurrency money-laundering schemes. It includes 164 cases spanning roughly two decades and shows roughly $350bn in illicit flows have moved through crypto-lin

Have you ever paused at a glossy video promising that somewhere out there, families flourish effortlessly, women glow with confidence, and there are simply no gender issues to speak of? A growing chorus of YouTubers and lifestyle commentators, often paid by the Kremlin , paints precisely that picture of Russia. In their telling, it is a haven that has struck the “perfect balance” between conservatism and feminism. Russian women, they say, combine devotion to family with ambit

This article reflects key arguments from a debate hosted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) on 16 January 2026 Ukraine is central to European history One of the most persistent distortions in discussions about Russia’s war against Ukraine is the assumption that Ukraine is historically marginal, an “edge case” recently pulled into European affairs. This assumption is not only wrong; it actively reproduces a Kremlin-centred view of history. Ukraine has been a core s

The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil. Wagner Group mercenaries in Africa. Photo: Grey Zone / Telegram The Russian Duma is about to adopt a law permitting the extraterritorial engagement of the armed forces to free Russian citizens arrested or detained by foreign courts. The government commission on legislation has just approved the respective draft legislation.

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the outbreak of hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories (TOT) have faced a steadily tightening system of information control. This process accelerated dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Today, an estimated 5 to 6 million people living under occupation exist in a prolonged state of information limbo. They are cut off from Ukrain

Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math. Source: Oneindia War in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up, to the delight of the Kremlin — but the rise may prove too short-lived and too modest to save the Russian government from otherwise imminent spending cuts this year. Just two months into 2026, the Kremlin’s budget is already shot to pieces. On March 3, Brent climbed to $83 a barrel , its highest sin

Russia’s dependence on American technology shatters the Kremlin’s invincibility narrative, leading to a slowdown in advance on the front. Claims of Russia’s invincibility became a central element of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine as we examined in our recent article . Faith in the greatness and self-sufficiency of the Russian army has been turned into a mantra of Kremlin propaganda. However, the war against Ukraine has shown the world that this narrative, like the myth

Some young people resist Kremlin pressure to create a generation of Putin-supporting nationalists. The West must recognize and support them. Russian anti-war activist Maxim Lypkan / Source: memopzk.org “Wars are not won by generals, but by schoolteachers,” Vladimir Putin said in 2023, in a statement that has become a cornerstone of his approach to youth indoctrination. The regime is determined to reshape young Russians’ minds by replacing critical thinking with militarized pa

Russia’s poorest people face a grim choice — an existence of grinding poverty, or gambling your life and limbs on the regime’s imperial adventure. Erik Romanenko / TASS Russia’s war in Ukraine is not being fought by a united “multiethnic people,” as Vladimir Putin likes to claim. The enormous burden of the fighting and the death toll has been disproportionately borne by the peoples of the poorest and most remote parts of the country. New analysis by The Bell shows that the h

Europe’s reliance on US payment networks has become a strategic vulnerability that worries policymakers. After AI chips and cloud computing, Europeans have woken up to another American-dominated technology to worry about — payment systems operated by Visa and Mastercard. France’s Aurore Lalucq , one of the European Parliament’s leading voices on financial services, recently expressed fears that Washington might suddenly “cut off” Europe.” Europe must build an alternative, “a

Russia’s use of cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions has exposed a gap in the international community’s attempts to throttle Moscow’s war machine. Photo: Agency «Moscow» / snob.ru The emergence of the A7A5 stablecoin represents a transformative shift in global financial evasion. Until now, the international community has relied on the dominance of the US dollar and the SWIFT system to enforce economic order, but the rise of ruble-backed digital assets suggests a sophisticated

Seizures of sanctions-busting oil tankers have triggered a new wave of disinformation from the Kremlin. A recent uptick in manipulative narratives about Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ suggests that the Kremlin is getting increasingly nervous about its ability to evade European sanctions on the export of Russian oil. Just as the Kremlin uses oil tankers flying false flags to transport Russian oil overseas, it uses false claims pushed by its foreign information manipulation and interf

The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast. Could Western armies adapt as quickly? As the worst winter in many years settled across Ukraine late last year, the 600,000-strong Russian invasion force innovated to embrace the cold — and briefly gained a tactical edge all along the 700-mile front line. The Ukrainians innovated right back, ultimately blunting that edge. That dance — measure versus countermeasure — should reassure frie

After losing its allies in Syria and Venezuela, a relieved Moscow will applaud the bloody suppression of the Iranian protests. Iranian protestors wave the pre-1979 Iranian flag bearing the lion and sun / photo: Social networks The preservation of the corrupt, sanctioned, repressive regime in Tehran is a critically important outcome for Moscow. It will have watched with enormous (self) interest and will be drawing conclusions from the Iranian theocracy’s at least initial, blo

Europe needs to get on the front foot to tackle Russia’s hybrid warfare, a Polish deputy defense minister warned as he unveiled details of a new anti-drone systems. Warmate loitering munition. (Source: Polish Ministry of National Defense) Cezary Tomczyk, secretary of state in Poland’s Ministry of Defense, has provided new details about a new €2bn (£2.3bn) anti-drone system which will be the largest of its kind on the continent, and able to detect and neutralize enemy drones

Ukrainian Droid Raw 12.7 UGV fitted with M2 Browning heavy machine gun during field trials. (Source: Ukrmilitary Pages / X) Ukrainian army officials claim to have made military history in late 2025 by deploying a single land drone armed with a mounted machine gun to hold a front line position for almost six weeks. The remote-controlled unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) reportedly completed a 45-day combat mission in eastern Ukraine while undergoing maintenance and reloading ever

The US Secretary of War’s acquisition reforms can find inspiration and assistance in Kyiv. Ukrainian small-sized Peklo cruise missiles / Illustrative photo: Office of the President of Ukraine “The defense acquisition system as you know it is dead,” US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared at the National War College in December as he addressed America’s top defense-industry leaders. “Speed replaces process, money follows need, joint problems drive action, experimentati

Ukraine is suffering badly, with implications for significant population movement. Western allies can help, if they acknowledge the threat. Blackout in Kyiv Cornered by an ever-narrowing range of options to advance his war of aggression, Vladimir Putin is making decisions that worsen his position. The chess term is zugzwang, and it explains why the Kremlin has decided to play one of its few remaining cards. Unable to defeat the Ukrainian army, Putin has declared war on Ukrain

In 2026, the Russian economy is not yet in decline, but it is in real trouble. War-driven growth is losing momentum, sanctions are tightening, financial reserves are shrinking, and uncertainty is increasingly shaping everyday life. What for a while looked like resilience is proving fragile, as the economic costs of the war spread beyond the battlefield. The illusion of resilience For years, the Kremlin has insisted that Western sanctions do not work and that Russia’s economy

While Tokyo no longer dominates global chipmaking, it has forged a path to reduce dependence on China and make itself indispensable. A few decades ago, Japan Inc. supplied almost 90% of the world’s memory chips, and just over 50% of the entire semiconductor market. Trade tensions flared between the US and Europe. The industry shifted, moving to processors and chip designers who outsourced to manufacturing foundries, most in Taiwan and South Korea. Today, Japan is back, reinv

Ukraine has made huge strides in its military technology but ingenuity alone won’t be enough for Kyiv to prevail. Photo: Sergey Okunev / NV Ever since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has compensated for its disadvantage in traditional firepower through innovation . Unmanned systems, particularly first-person view (FPV) drones, helped its forces blunt Russian offensives and impose heavy costs on attacking units. Over time, this approach hardened into what was described as

The aircraft have a near-unique ability to hit Russian targets but only if Europe provides them with the right munitions. Ukrainian F-16 with GBU-39 aerial bomb, November 2025. Photo credits: martes1k ( t.me/maratix1 ) In a virtuoso display of air-defense prowess unimaginable for any European member of NATO, Ukrainian forces shot down 34 out of 35 cruise missiles on December 22. It was even more notable given Ukraine’s defenders were also warding off another 638 Russian rocke

F-16 fighter jets patrolling over Greenland. Photo: The Danish Armed Forces Bottom lines up front: In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility. The White House is correct that Greenland and the waters around it are a strategic asset—one that Europe has failed to recognize in recent years. If Europe wants to ensure that no outside power can exercise control over Greenland, then it