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ANALYTICS


Kazakhstan and the Russian Tightrope
President Tokayev has restored order since “Bloody January” and boosted Kazakhstan’s image, but Russia’s economic weakness and tougher US...
2 days ago


Russian hybrid warfare: Ukraine’s success offers lessons for Europe
Source: Atlantic Council As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues, the Kremlin is also rapidly escalating its hybrid war...
5 days ago


The Booming China-Russia Drone Alliance
The Russia-China axis is expanding as engineers from both sides work side-by-side to produce lethal drone technology. By David Kirichenko...
6 days ago


How Russia Prepared Crimea and Donetsk for Attack
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 followed decades of work to assert control over Crimea and Donbas. The playbook will be...
Jun 10


Unpacking Russia’s cyber nesting doll
When the Russian government launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many Western observers braced for digital...
Jun 5


Hot Shots: Cold Sweats
Europe’s not ready. And Putin knows it. By Edward Lucas. Source: NATO Force Integration Unit Latvia With every day that passes, Europe...
May 27


Belarus: the campaign to harass and lure back exiled political opponents
The 21st of May marks the International Day of Solidarity with Political Prisoners in Belarus. We look at how the regime in Belarus has...
May 26


How Russia Mobilises Troops in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories
Russia has occupied parts of Ukraine for over ten years. The Center for Information Resilience (CIR) and the Detector Media Research...
May 23


Behind the Lines: Russia Makes Ukrainians Foreigners in Their Own Country
Putin has given Ukrainians until September to become Russian citizens or leave the occupied territories in his latest attempt to erase...
May 20


The Phony War: Ukraine and Russia’s Decoy Drones
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a race to combat ever-more sophisticated drone attacks, and to spot the decoys sent to deceive their...
May 16


Bosnia: Moscow’s Second Front in Europe
The Kremlin is playing games behind the scenes in the Balkans, presenting the West with a challenge and an opportunity. Source:...
May 13


NATO and the End of Military Self-Indulgence
NATO’s founding treaty obliges members “to maintain and develop [the]...capacity to resist armed attack.” That has been seriously...
May 8


Britain’s Spymasters — The Kremlin’s Most Feared Enemy
A profound anxiety about the espionage capabilities of the UK and France is rooted deep in the Kremlin’s consciousness. While the US...
Apr 18


Ukrainian victims of war crimes need new approaches to justice
Photo source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine In recent months, international media coverage of Russia’s Ukraine invasion has focused...
Apr 17


Putin is ruthlessly erasing Ukrainian identity in Russian-occupied Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Ukrainians living under Russian occupation to “legalize” their status by September 10 or...
Apr 10


Why American Soldiers Are in Lithuania
The likely accidental deaths of four Americans in the Baltic state will not by themselves stop plans for redeployment. And they...
Mar 31


Behind the curtain: a novel analytical approach to FIMI exposure
The European External Action Service (EEAS) has released its third report on foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI)...
Mar 28


NATO’s capability development: A call for urgent reform
Photo by Marina Militare In today’s fast-evolving security environment, NATO finds itself at a critical crossroads. Rapid technological...
Mar 21


What we have learnt about FIMI after three years of full-scale war in Ukraine
By Mykola Balaban and Serhii Zhukov The modern level of economic, political, and informational globalisation offers vast opportunities...
Mar 19


Belarus: Lukashenka’s sham election and shift towards a Chinese political model
On 26 January 2025, Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced his ‘overwhelming’ victory in his seventh presidential election,...
Mar 18


The Baltics Adapt to Trump
The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses as Washington...
Mar 17


Ghosts Haunt Poland’s Future
The prospect of the US abandoning Europe is raising profound questions in Warsaw. Poland is nearing a crossroads. It has been there...
Mar 14


Russia’s Interference Freezes NATO Exercise
Moscow’s hybrid war has stopped a NATO military exercise in Romania. President Vladimir Putin’s disruptive meddling is causing serious...
Mar 10


The end of transit: Russian propaganda in search of new ways for Russian gas
The Ukrainian-Russian agreement on the transit of Russian gas to European countries expired on January 1, 2025. This step severed the...
Mar 5


‘Freedom Is Dearer Than Life’ Says Jailed Georgian Journalist
From prison, Mzia Amaglobeli has become a symbol of resistance against Georgia’s oppressive pro-Russian elite. In a photograph taken in...
Feb 28


Why is the Kremlin so hung up on smearing Zelenskyy?
According to the Kremlin: A drug addict, a dictator and a puppet, oligarch, collector of Nazi memorabilia and a Nazi himself, an agent...
Feb 27


The Plague of Sexual Violence Against Ukraine’s Prisoners of War
Ukrainian prisoners of war are suffering sexual violence and rape, compounded by a suffocating silence that isolates them from the world....
Feb 19


Inflation, stagflation, and spin – the Kremlin’s economic war propaganda
Russia’s economy is under pressure, but the Kremlin does not want you to know it. Instead, Moscow has launched an all-out campaign of...
Feb 18


Poland and the Battle to Beat Russian Despotism
As Ukraine’s biggest democratic neighbour, Poland has done everything in its power to help Kyiv. There’s every reason to continue that...
Feb 14


Moscow Embraces Soviet Visuals to Justify War
Soviet imagery and narratives have been a central part of Vladimir Putin’s justification for his assault on Ukraine, and his propaganda...
Feb 6


Don’t Know: Even Now
As crises loom, questions still outnumber answers. By Edward Lucas. Lithuania’s Snow Meeting is less famous than Davos. But the night-owl...
Feb 4


Revival of the Stalinist sport parades in Putin’s Russia
Putin’s fight with ‘neoliberal’ international sports On 17 October 2024, a few months after the Paris Olympic Games, Putin took part in a...
Jan 27


Putin’s Limbless Generation Struggles for Support
Vladimir Putin’s propagandists can’t hide the growing number of disabled war veterans struggling with inadequate or non-existent...
Jan 24


“Gas Gangrene” of Kyiv and Moscow: The Informational Component
For the last three decades, Russia has wielded gas pricing and supply as instruments of political influence. What changed in 2025?...
Jan 22


"True Europe," "Eurasian Civilization," "Russkiy Mir": How Moscow justifies its imperial ambitions across different regions of the world
This analysis examines how Putin's Russia constructs its image to justify political and military interventions in various parts of the...
Jan 16


Romania Pays the Price for Kremlin Interference
The country has been plunged into political instability by a Russian campaign that no one saw coming. Romania avoided a bullet, but the...
Jan 6


Eastern Europe’s “Isolation Belt”: Russia’s Informational Influence on the 2024 Elections
How Moscow exploited elections in Moldova, Georgia, and Romania to undermine Ukraine? The year 2024 stands out as a historic moment for...
Jan 2


Revisiting Russia’s narratives on its Syria intervention
As Russia pulls back its forces and equipment from Syria following what was undoubtedly a strategic defeat, let’s revisit Moscow’s...
Dec 23, 2024


Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats
The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats. On Halloween, Lithuania marked...
Dec 12, 2024


How to Counter Russia’s Hybrid Threats? First, Make Them a Priority
Moscow’s hybrid war on the West needs a robust and smart response, which means coordinated action from the European Union. The hybrid...
Nov 28, 2024


Making Russia Pay for Hybrid Attacks
There is a range of actions the West can take to counter Russia‘s malign activities. With the problem worsening, they need to be swiftly...
Nov 19, 2024


Russian Cossacks Join the Kremlin’s Imperial Mission
The Cossack identity has become an increasingly potent symbol for both Russia and Ukraine, and responses to the festival of Pokrova show...
Nov 12, 2024


Analysis: Why Moldova is a make-or-break moment to combat Russian interference
Moldova upcoming presidential election and referendum on joining the EU is an urgent test for Russia’s ability to interfere globally for...
Oct 18, 2024


Beware — Mystery Balloons Can Carry a Punch
Hybrid warfare is getting ever closer to the line of all-out warfare. As usual, the Baltic states are the testing ground. Photo source...
Oct 15, 2024


Goebbels in a Skirt: Exposing Diana Panchenko
Diana Panchenko is no stranger to Ukrainian screens. Known for her work on Kremlin-sponsored outlets since 2018, she has long branded...
Sep 19, 2024


Georgia: The next colour revolution?
On 1 August, a contentious law on ”transparency of foreign influence” took effect in Georgia. The law imposes unduly strict controls on...
Sep 2, 2024


Lukashenka’s cemented dictatorship in Belarus: four years since August 2020
Four years have passed since the rigged 9 August 2020 presidential election in Belarus. Ordinary people are labelled traitors and...
Aug 28, 2024


Kremlin information, manipulation, and interference in the Lublin Triangle (Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania) and Moldova
Kremlin efforts to manipulate and interfere with information are an ongoing challenge in the countries of the Lublin Triangle, or L3, a...
Aug 23, 2024


Russia’s Digital Tech Isolationism: Domestic Innovation, Digital Fragmentation, and the Kremlin’s Push to Replace Western Digital Technology
Russia’s technological isolation is both a reality and a desired goal for Moscow. This piece explores the impacts of this phenomenon and...
Aug 22, 2024


OT Cyber Policy: The Titanic or the Iceberg
Current policy does not address the issue of cyber-physical security with a systemic approach, instead focusing with tunnel vision on...
Aug 2, 2024
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