GEOPOLITICS

By Agnia Grigas Agnia Grigas These are tense times for NATO’s European frontline states. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is well into its fifth year. US President Donald Trump is reducing troop presence in Europe and questioning America’s commitment to NATO, while the European powers are yet to take on full responsibility for their continent’s security. And the war in the Middle East is consuming finite resources and diverting attention from other security topics. In this challe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy is once again being queried, but opponents are asking the wrong question. Donald Trump thinks Ukraine needs a new president. Vladimir Putin agrees, as does Elon Musk, and the point was once made by that great friend of Ukraine, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. So, let’s imagine that, somehow, fair and free elections with no Russian interference were to be held tomorrow in Ukraine. Who would win? According to a September 23 public opinion survey c

The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available. Source: ScanSpecialties The Russian threat rises and rises. The risks and costs from its shadow (and sometimes open) attacks are increasing, and at some point soon there will be a serious crisis, perhaps brought on by the casualties from a successful version of the Kremlin’s bungled strike at Leipzig Airport in Au

Source: Alexey Larionov / Unsplash From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war. So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin

Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital. Photo by Marina Militare The alliance cannot sustain collective defense if its citizens doubt why it exists, distrust what it says, or come to believe it is responsible for the threats it confronts. Public trust in NATO should be seen as a key part of Europe’s security infrastructure. Soci

The Kremlin-directed attacks on Europe are a sign of weakness. Europe must craft a robust new response to raise the pressure on Russia. Photo: Panzerbrigade 45 Litauen Facebook page Europe’s response to Russia’s increasingly ferocious attacks on Ukraine and a widening shadow war campaign against European NATO has been familiar: strategic restraint. That strategy is increasingly outdated. Something new is needed. Hybrid warfare operates in the space between strategic necessity

Russia is promoting a picture of the Baltic region in which NATO is preparing to attack Russia, Baltic governments are heavily militarising, and Russian speakers face imminent persecution. Taken together, these narratives create an atmosphere of permanent crisis in which military escalation appears increasingly plausible. This allows Moscow to exert pressure even without taking overt military action – the possibility of conflict itself becomes an instrument of coercion. In la

Moscow routinely portrays elections in democratic countries as fraudulent and controlled from abroad. Yet Russia’s own parliamentary election offers no genuine political choice: the Kremlin controls the field and has eliminated even the possibility of voting against the war in Ukraine. As the war’s effects reach deeper into everyday life, growing public dissatisfaction is being kept out of the ballot box. When post-Soviet states turn away from Russia, as Armenia or Moldova ha

Source: Lithuianian Armed Forces Lithuania’s security environment has fundamentally changed over the past decade. Public and institutional thinking, however, has not fully adapted. Lithuania is no longer operating in peacetime. Alongside sustained Russian rhetoric about a future conventional invasion, Lithuania is already facing an ongoing hostile campaign below the threshold of open conflict, eroding the distinction between peace and war. Those actions go beyond traditional

Foto: Vladimir Velengurin / KP As Russian President Vladimir Putin grows increasingly isolated domestically and internationally amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, there is renewed speculation over who might one day succeed him and what that this would mean for Russia. “For the first time since the conflict began, Russians are starting to imagine a future without Putin,” Britain’s Economist reported in May. The prospect of new Russian leadership provokes mixed reactions. Wh

Screenshot form Tass WASHINGTON—On July 25, Ukraine struck an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea, killing a sailor in the attack. At the time, Ukraine stated that the ship was carrying military equipment to Russia, while Iranian officials claimed it was a commercial ship and warned Kyiv of reprisal. In the days that followed, Tehran reportedly considered carrying out a retaliatory strike, until Iranian Foreign Minister Abas Araghchi spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, An

The Kremlin’s on-again-off-again campaign to intimidate and disorientate European allies is picking up once more. Galati, Romania / Source: Digi24 Russia’s shadow war against NATO allies has moved southwards, with three drone breaches of Romanian airspace in as many days, and a surge of other incursions in recent weeks. Together with another attack on Poland, where a Russian cruise missile struck 100 km (62 miles) from the country’s eastern border on July 30, the incidents su

By Taine Noble / Unsplash Russia launched 126 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July 2026, the New York Times reports. This figure represents a new monthly record since the start of the full-scale invasion as Moscow steps up the bombardment of Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. The recent surge in missile attacks comes as Ukraine runs short of air defense ammunition, leaving the country virtually defenseless against the Kremlin’s ballistic blitz. Russian President V

As news from the front makes Vladimir Putin’s demands for peace with Kyiv look more absurd, Ukraine and its allies must push for justice. Why would Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or any outside mediator, want to talk with Putin? Even if a ceasefire was achieved, as Serhii Plokhy argues in David and Goliath (Harvard Ukrainian Studies, February 2026), it would not bring lasting peace. Illustrative photo. A children's toy in a destroyed house in Sumy / Stas Yurchenko

Ukrainians have taken to the streets in recent weeks to voice their concerns over the sudden removal of the country’s reformist defense minister. Rolling protests in Kyiv and cities across Ukraine have sparked the biggest political crisis since the start of the full-scale war and have highlighted the continued strength of the Ukrainian population’s democratic instincts. Photo: Mykhailo Tyunkin, Graty The remarkable readiness of ordinary Ukrainians to defend their rights and h

The two neighbors are mutually dependent in fighting the Russian menace. They should remember this when historical disputes erupt. Photo: ТСН 2026 is the Year of Jerzy Giedroyć. Americans may be forgiven for not recognizing one of Central Europe’s leading 20th-century democratic intellectuals, but Poles have no excuse. The Polish Senate decided to honor him last year. Most of the country’s elite, including President Karol Nawrocki, a professional historian and former director

Russian Navy Day celebrations. July 26, 2026. Freeze frame from the IZ.RU video Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced widespread ridicule this week following Sunday’s dramatically downgraded Russian Navy Day celebrations, with detractors claiming the sorry spectacle has underlined his failure to secure Russian airspace against Ukrainian drones. Russia’s annual Navy Day festivities have traditionally served as an opportunity to flex the country’s maritime muscles. In the

Simple geographic binaries cannot address the threats the US faces, especially as its enemies pursue a broad alliance across the globe. Zulfugar Karimov/Unsplash For much of the past decade, American strategic debate has been dominated by a single proposition. The United States is told it must choose between theaters of conflict. China is described as the pacing threat, and Washington should therefore commit its finite resources toward the Indo-Pacific. Europe, while importan

Intelligence agency obsessions can seem eccentric from a distance, but they map the mind and the game theory of the Kremlin’s security elite. Source dzen.ru It is a time of huge strain on the Russian despotism. Drones strike oil refineries with near-clockwork regularity, fuel queues stretch for miles from filling stations, and the leader’s aura of invincibility is under question. So it might seem a curious time for Russia’s guard dogs to be dredging up old conspiracy theories

As international efforts to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue, it is also vital to look beyond the battlefield and address the issue of Ukraine’s recovery. This will shape Europe’s future for decades to come, with profound implications for European security and the democratic world’s ability to respond to international aggression. Photo: Petro Poyman/MAIDAN.ORG.UA Since the early stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the discussion over Ukraine’s recovery and rec

For the first time since Moldovan independence, reuniting with Romania is backed by leaders in both countries, and public opinion is warming. The once far-fetched idea is being discussed not only in Chișinău and Bucharest, but also in Brussels, which says the two nations should decide their own fates. For Moscow, it represents a nightmare. Moldova was part of Romania from 1918 until 1940, when it was annexed by the Soviet Union as part of Moscow’s pact with Nazi Germany. It

Although the US government lifted an export control order on Anthropic’s artificial intelligence model, the damage to transatlantic ties remains. Illustration: Steve A Johnson / Unsplash The episode has sharpened Europe’s dilemma over digital sovereignty. Instead of accepting a false choice between depending on US AI software or building an independent European AI capability, policymakers on the continent should follow the example that is already being set by industry and mix

Russia has proved time and again it doesn’t believe in fair play, preferring to cheat at every turn. Vladimir Putin’s sportswashing cannot be allowed. The soccer World Cup is nearing its climax, but the geopolitics of international sports are only just heating up. The executive board of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced on July 7 that it is provisionally lifting Russia’s suspension from the organization. It reasoned that Russia “no longer includes as its mem

As Armenia cemented its shift to the West in June’s election, a new Kremlin-aligned opposition emerged, giving Moscow a way to build influence and sow division. Samvel Karapetyan addresses reporters on election day. Photo: Mariam Nikuradze/OC Media. While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won almost 50% of the vote on June 7, and his Civil Contract party secured another parliamentary majority, a political movement built around Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, won

Any new European defense system must have the continent’s most battle-hardened military at its heart. Step forward, Ukraine. Source: Facebook/GeneralStaff.ua There are many lessons from Europe’s biggest war in 80 years, but one stands out as absolutely essential. Ukraine has shown time and time again, and with growing frequency, that Russia can dish it out, but can’t take it. Ukraine’s resolve and innovation, its ability to fight and beat Russia, demonstrate its unique value

Source: BELTA Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka is not enthusiastic about the prospect of joining Russia’s Ukraine invasion, but he appears to be steadily building up his country’s military capacity in case he finds himself pushed more directly into the war. That was the central message of a recent report presented to the Ukrainian government by the Belarusian democratic opposition. It documented numerous signs of Belarus’s accelerating militarization, including changes

Is China expanding its presence in areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia? Or is it just another of the Kremlin’s propaganda games? Photo: Leestat | Dreamstime.com “In the village of Urzuf, the first tourists have opened the swimming season,” reports a Russian TV reporter from the Azov Sea coast in occupied Donetsk. “There is even a new ride called the Pendulum, and today we are the first to test it. It was recently brought from China, installed by Chinese specialists.” Moscow

NATO’s fragmented responses to Russia’s “accidental” border incursions are enabling Moscow’s shadow war. Galati, Romania / Source: Digi24 On the night of May 29, two Russian drones crossed into Romanian airspace, flew roughly 18km (11 miles) into NATO territory, and struck a residential building in the city of Galați. Two people were injured, and a large fire swept through the neighborhood. The incident was reported as an accident, an unintended consequence of Russian strikes

Drone strikes on St. Petersburg / RBC.UA Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on St. Petersburg provided arguably the most visible indication to date that Vladimir Putin’s invasion is not going according to plan. They also served to underline the fact that the war is now no longer confined to Ukraine and is increasingly being fought inside Russia itself. The drone attacks on Russia’s second city took place in early June as it hosted the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

The war’s end will mark the start of a race to secure the peace and make the continent the author of its future. When G7 leaders gather in Évian on June 17, where they will be joined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they will confront a strategic backdrop profoundly different from a year ago. In mid-2025, the transatlantic consensus was gripped by a grim, deterministic idea: that Russia was locked into a sustainable war of attrition where time and mass inherently favored th

The economy’s two main tracks are moving in different directions. Source: Wix Russia’s wartime economy was already running on two separate tracks. Now they’re diverging even faster, and the gap is certain to widen still more. On one side sits a state-subsidized, demand-guaranteed military-industrial complex, expanding at a pace that would be the envy of any peacetime planner. On the other hand, a civilian economy is slowly hollowing out, starved of labor, capital, and credit.

Pashinyan’s victory leaves the Kremlin with the difficult choice of confrontation or something more pragmatic. Source: Nikol Pashinyan Facebook page  The parliamentary elections in Armenia ended in the incumbent prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and his party Civil Contract’s victory. Winning nearly 50% of the vote on an increased turnout, the ruling party will hold 64 seats in the 105-member National Assembly. This is enough to form a government, but it fell short of the seats

With the US summit behind it, China is squaring up for the next defining trade battle. It’s very confident that it will win. Source: Unspash Europe and China may be heading for a trade war. The European Commission said on May 29 that its economic and security interests will require “a more robust and coherent response” to a surge in Chinese exports to the bloc. The current situation is “not sustainable,” it said. For its part, China accused the Commission of seeking a scapego

The days when Chinese industry received a free pass from the Budapest government are over. A water shortage has seen to that. Source: PAP/EPA/Zsolt Czegledi HUNGARY OUT/TVP World Hungary faces an unprecedented water crisis. There are several causes, among them the years-long campaign by Viktor Orbán’s government to lure heavily polluting and water-hungry Chinese battery factories to the country. During Orbán’s 16 years in power, he guaranteed to Chinese investors vast amounts

How Georgia’s billionaire Ivanishvili misread Moscow, and why Washington shouldn't reward his overtures. Bidzina Ivanishvili / Source TV Pirveli Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze flew to Yerevan in May, shook hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after years of poisonous relations, and spoke about the Middle Corridor transport and energy route. Weeks earlier, the ruling Georgian Dream party had announced the first, belated arrests of law-enforcement offic

Source: NATO Multinational Battlegroup Estonia Washington—As Ukrainian and Russian delegates take stock of resuming peace talks—temporarily on a “situational” hold amid the US conflict with Iran—there is growing agreement among Kyiv’s partners that, after an agreement is reached, Western troops will be needed in Ukraine to monitor and enforce it. Several Western states have already committed to contribute forces, with the United Kingdom and France recently announcing their wi

Armenia is building closer relations with the EU, underlining Russia’s diminishing influence in the South Caucasus. Source: Nikol Pashinyan on X For decades, Moscow’s power in the South Caucasus rested on military presence, conflict-management formats, energy leverage, and economic influence. This is now under visible strain. Armenia is actively engaging the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan has grown significantly more assertive in its foreign policy, while Georgia is deepenin

Source: Rumen Radev Facebook page In early May, former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev was appointed as the country’s new prime minister, potentially bringing one of Europe’s longest-running political crises in recent years to an end. Since 2021, Bulgaria has endured a prolonged period of political instability marked by fragmented parliaments, collapsing coalitions, caretaker governments, and repeated elections. The crisis culminated in the eighth parliamentary election in un

The EU's new defense industry program has the right architecture. The factories, the workers, and the political will are another matter. Rheinmetall AG artillery ammunition factory in Lithuania / A. Pliadis / Lithuanian MOD Europe’s new €1.5bn ($1.8bn) defense industry program has a line item nobody expected. Factories built to produce counter-drone weapons can now claim EU money to protect themselves from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Commission adopted the work progr

An exercise testing NATO responses to hybrid attacks revealed a need for the West to be more nimble, and willing to mimic enemy tactics to defend itself. Source: NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) At Lithuania’s Šiauliai International Airport, a delegation receives reports of sudden signal degradation and communications disruption across Ukraine. The news is an early indicator of spillover from an enhanced Russian jamming operation and raises serious quest

Russia continues its attempts to disrupt and interfere with democracies in its neighbourhood. Learning from its failure in its attempt in the latest parliamentary elections in Moldova, Russia shifted its focus to the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia – and this time with a head start, nearly a year before elections are set to take place. Russia tested the ground throughout the winter, seeding hostile narratives against the current Armenian authorities and candidates

A crashed Russian Shahed-136 drone (The National Guard of Ukraine) Bottom lines up front The Islamic Republic of Iran should be held accountable for its role in supplying Russia with the means to carry out international crimes against civilians in Ukraine. Researchers have collected evidence indicating that Iranian officials could be held legally liable for supplying its drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine. There are several international and domestic legal mechanisms tha

The loss of a populist ally in Budapest has a range of financial consequences for the Putin regime. Source : kremlin.ru Make no mistake, the Kremlin is feeling the pain from the historic landslide victory for Hungary’s opposition, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán. The most immediate blow is ideological. Orbán was living proof that sovereign, illiberal democracy is possible, popular, and even sustainable in some parts of the European Union (EU). His fall damages that na

Kyiv is disrupting Russia’s African networks. That reduces Moscow’s ability to raise money and to pressure Europe’s most vulnerable frontier. By EUvsDisinfo Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly being contested in Africa, where Ukraine has begun targeting Russian networks far beyond the European battlefield. The operations are limited in scale but strategically focused, aimed at disrupting the infrastructure Moscow relies on to sustain its war effort and pressure NATO’

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency. Photo: Vardan Papykian / Unsplash Russia’s Ministry of Defense has a spending problem. That’s not just because the country started a war of choice against Ukraine, at a staggering human and economic cost; it’s also because the military system is riddled with corruption, and no one has been able to get a grip on it. Of course, it’s true that Vladimir Putin’s

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

The danger is not only that Slovakia is becoming Hungary. It is that Orbán's style of politics is prevailing across all of Europe. “They are the risk,” reads an election poster for the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, beneath images of opposition leader Péter Magyar, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. / Photo: Balint Szentgallay/Nur Photo/TT When Hungary votes on April 12 , it will test whether Viktor Orbán’s 16-year

Despite being freed by the Belarusian dictatorship, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski says the West should recognize hostage diplomacy as a dead end. Ales Bialiatski, founder of the human rights center “Viasna” and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Vilnius, Lithuania. December 18, 2025. Photo: Belsat “Does Belarusian give us more sausage?” It is a question the Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka once put to his own people. What does the Belarusian language actually give you

Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math. Source: Oneindia War in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up, to the delight of the Kremlin — but the rise may prove too short-lived and too modest to save the Russian government from otherwise imminent spending cuts this year. Just two months into 2026, the Kremlin’s budget is already shot to pieces. On March 3, Brent climbed to $83 a barrel , its highest sin