GEOPOLITICS

The EU's new defense industry program has the right architecture. The factories, the workers, and the political will are another matter. Rheinmetall AG artillery ammunition factory in Lithuania / A. Pliadis / Lithuanian MOD Europe’s new €1.5bn ($1.8bn) defense industry program has a line item nobody expected. Factories built to produce counter-drone weapons can now claim EU money to protect themselves from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Commission adopted the work progr

An exercise testing NATO responses to hybrid attacks revealed a need for the West to be more nimble, and willing to mimic enemy tactics to defend itself. Source: NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) At Lithuania’s Šiauliai International Airport, a delegation receives reports of sudden signal degradation and communications disruption across Ukraine. The news is an early indicator of spillover from an enhanced Russian jamming operation and raises serious quest

Russia continues its attempts to disrupt and interfere with democracies in its neighbourhood. Learning from its failure in its attempt in the latest parliamentary elections in Moldova, Russia shifted its focus to the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia – and this time with a head start, nearly a year before elections are set to take place. Russia tested the ground throughout the winter, seeding hostile narratives against the current Armenian authorities and candidates

A crashed Russian Shahed-136 drone (The National Guard of Ukraine) Bottom lines up front The Islamic Republic of Iran should be held accountable for its role in supplying Russia with the means to carry out international crimes against civilians in Ukraine. Researchers have collected evidence indicating that Iranian officials could be held legally liable for supplying its drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine. There are several international and domestic legal mechanisms tha

The loss of a populist ally in Budapest has a range of financial consequences for the Putin regime. Source : kremlin.ru Make no mistake, the Kremlin is feeling the pain from the historic landslide victory for Hungary’s opposition, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán. The most immediate blow is ideological. Orbán was living proof that sovereign, illiberal democracy is possible, popular, and even sustainable in some parts of the European Union (EU). His fall damages that na

Kyiv is disrupting Russia’s African networks. That reduces Moscow’s ability to raise money and to pressure Europe’s most vulnerable frontier. By EUvsDisinfo Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly being contested in Africa, where Ukraine has begun targeting Russian networks far beyond the European battlefield. The operations are limited in scale but strategically focused, aimed at disrupting the infrastructure Moscow relies on to sustain its war effort and pressure NATO’

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency. Photo: Vardan Papykian / Unsplash Russia’s Ministry of Defense has a spending problem. That’s not just because the country started a war of choice against Ukraine, at a staggering human and economic cost; it’s also because the military system is riddled with corruption, and no one has been able to get a grip on it. Of course, it’s true that Vladimir Putin’s

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

The danger is not only that Slovakia is becoming Hungary. It is that Orbán's style of politics is prevailing across all of Europe. “They are the risk,” reads an election poster for the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, beneath images of opposition leader Péter Magyar, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. / Photo: Balint Szentgallay/Nur Photo/TT When Hungary votes on April 12 , it will test whether Viktor Orbán’s 16-year

Despite being freed by the Belarusian dictatorship, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski says the West should recognize hostage diplomacy as a dead end. Ales Bialiatski, founder of the human rights center “Viasna” and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Vilnius, Lithuania. December 18, 2025. Photo: Belsat “Does Belarusian give us more sausage?” It is a question the Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka once put to his own people. What does the Belarusian language actually give you

Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math. Source: Oneindia War in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up, to the delight of the Kremlin — but the rise may prove too short-lived and too modest to save the Russian government from otherwise imminent spending cuts this year. Just two months into 2026, the Kremlin’s budget is already shot to pieces. On March 3, Brent climbed to $83 a barrel , its highest sin

If Europe hopes to find inspiration and security from others it is destined for disappointment, says Lithuania’s former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis . I left this year’s Munich Security Conference in a mood which diplomats would describe as “thoughtful.” We could call this progress, since my mood in previous years was famously gloomy. The highlight was US Secretary of State Mark Rubio’s February 14 speech . Opinions differ on whether this represented an outstretche

Europe’s reliance on US payment networks has become a strategic vulnerability that worries policymakers. After AI chips and cloud computing, Europeans have woken up to another American-dominated technology to worry about — payment systems operated by Visa and Mastercard. France’s Aurore Lalucq , one of the European Parliament’s leading voices on financial services, recently expressed fears that Washington might suddenly “cut off” Europe.” Europe must build an alternative, “a

The Kremlin’s idea of a rapprochement is very different to Baku’s. Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev (left) and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin seen here during a one-on-one meeting in Tajikistan on October 9. (Photo: kremlin.ru) Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia persist, and this despite the tacit rapprochement that materialized as a result of the meeting between the presidents of the two countries in October in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. During the talks, held on the

After losing its allies in Syria and Venezuela, a relieved Moscow will applaud the bloody suppression of the Iranian protests. Iranian protestors wave the pre-1979 Iranian flag bearing the lion and sun / photo: Social networks The preservation of the corrupt, sanctioned, repressive regime in Tehran is a critically important outcome for Moscow. It will have watched with enormous (self) interest and will be drawing conclusions from the Iranian theocracy’s at least initial, blo

Moldova’s unification with Romania may not be popular with voters on either side of the border but the two countries’ energy security policies tell a different story. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has caused a furor. In an interview with Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, two British political figures turned podcasters, she openly stated she would vote for unification with Romania if there were a referendum. Unionists on both sides of the River Prut were elated. For mor

Source: Kremlin.ru The new year has begun much as 2025 ended, with Russia rejecting key elements of peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. In early January, Russian Foreign Ministry officials confirmed they would not accept the presence of European troops in Ukraine as part of proposed postwar security guarantees for Kyiv. This followed a series of similar recent statements from Kremlin officials reiterating Moscow’s uncompromising position and dismissing a 20

While Tokyo no longer dominates global chipmaking, it has forged a path to reduce dependence on China and make itself indispensable. A few decades ago, Japan Inc. supplied almost 90% of the world’s memory chips, and just over 50% of the entire semiconductor market. Trade tensions flared between the US and Europe. The industry shifted, moving to processors and chip designers who outsourced to manufacturing foundries, most in Taiwan and South Korea. Today, Japan is back, reinv

F-16 fighter jets patrolling over Greenland. Photo: The Danish Armed Forces Bottom lines up front: In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility. The White House is correct that Greenland and the waters around it are a strategic asset—one that Europe has failed to recognize in recent years. If Europe wants to ensure that no outside power can exercise control over Greenland, then it

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has increasingly militarized the Black Sea region, presenting a threat to both NATO and its littoral partners, especially Ukraine and Moldova. Indeed, the region has become a testing ground for Russian hybrid warfare operations. These operations, which engage adversaries below the threshold of war, often seek to undermine civil society with tactics such as assaults on the integrity of elections, attacks on infrastruct

Europe needs to share intelligence and exploit legal “gray zones” to tackle Russia’s sanctions-busting shadow fleet. Russian shadow fleet tanker Kiwala detained off the Estonian coast between the island of Aegna and the port of Muuga, east of Tallinn, Friday, April 11, 2025. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR The fleet, hundreds of ships strong, enables Moscow to circumvent curbs on oil sales and engage in sabotage, particularly in the Baltic, posing security, environmental, and economic

Russia will step-up its shadow war on Europe in the New Year, attacking infrastructure and disrupting democracy in a bid to exploit Western disunity. Russian drone on the roof of a barn in Moldova / Source Belcy 24 In 2026, the Kremlin will seek to demonstrate that Russia retains the initiative and remains a great power despite its economic and military decline. This is designed in part to emphasize a country on the brink of historic success and to build on images of Presiden

Russia’s relentless assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and a crisis of governance promise a cold winter. But there is hope ahead. Illustrative photo. Elimination of the Consequences of Hostile Shelling of Poltava Region / Photo – Ministry of Energy of Ukraine/Zmist The Kremlin’s forces have been striking Ukraine’s energy generation and distribution facilities almost daily. Attacks on November 25 alone left more than 40,000 people without power in the Kyiv region, 20,

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin believe their autocratic political and economic systems will gradually defeat the West’s democracies. How can they be stopped? President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin / Photo: Sergei Bobylev, RIA Novosti The liberal international order, which has dominated world affairs since World War II, is now collapsing, and China and Russia appear increasingly confident that top-down dictatorial regimes will fill the void. S

The new US National Security Strategy is surprising only for those determined to ignore reality. By Edward Lucas In an ideal, imagined world, the US is a wise, friendly, and eternal mentor to its European allies. It uncomplainingly shoulders the burden of military and diplomatic leadership. It does not push its own interests too hard, whatever American voters may want. Against the background of such wholly unrealistic assumptions, the new US National Security Strategy inde

Foto: Jurij Beljat poligonmedia.io US President Donald Trump’s latest bid to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days, with officials from Washington, Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe all seeking to shape the contours of a possible agreement. For now, discussion has centered on immediate matters, such as the wording of security guarantees. However, the far deeper historical roots that have long driven Russian violence

A comparative assessment of the Russian and Ukrainian wartime economies underlines that Russia’s ongoing invasion has imposed far greater costs on Ukraine by depleting its manpower , worsening its demographics , and straining the country’s financial resources . Sustained support for the Ukrainian economy is therefore crucial as Europe and the United States seek to push Putin toward the negotiating table. Ukraine Economy / Source The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune American and Eu

Kremlin success would benefit the Beijing regime in a whole number of ways, including the theft of Ukrainian military technology. What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning? That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vlad

Developments in 2025 have highlighted the reordering of regional power relations in the South Caucasus. There is opportunity for the West, but peril too. Fuzuli international airport, called the air gate of Karabakh / Source report.az Tensions over an Azerbaijan civilian airliner destroyed by a Russian missile, the cautious rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey , and Georgia’s increasingly confrontational stance toward the European Union (EU) reflect tectonic changes in

Art can deliver a powerful geopolitical message — so be careful. By Edward Lucas Source: State Border Guard Republic of Latvia One of the pleasures of my annual visit to Venice is seeing how the countries that I know best present themselves at the Biennale, the international summer-to-autumn cultural festival that features alternately art and, this year, architecture. The current crop includes an Estonian exhibit on home insulation, Lithuania on trees, Ukraine on roofs,

The Kremlin has a vision for the future. It should make everyone very worried. By Gabrielė Klimaitė-Želvienė A palm reader examines a woman’s hand and shakes her head. Something terrible and dark lurks in her future. The client sees the palmist’s frowns and becomes frightened. “Will I get sick?” “No,” says the palm reader. “Will I die then?” The old woman again shakes her head. “So what will happen?” “Nothing at all,” the palm reader says. “Nothing will ever change

When many US taxpayers hear about Ukraine, they ask: what’s in it for us? The story of Ukraine's largest oil company shows why helping Kyiv can put America first. Source: FREEDOM In November 2022, nine months after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine seized Ukrnafta from oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. The once-mighty petrochemical behemoth was near collapse — with just $10m in the bank, billion-dollar tax debts , and a $14m payroll it could barely meet. Yet under reformist man

Political meddling has long hampered German intelligence and security. Not any more. By Edward Lucas Penetrated by the opposition, paralysed by legal obstacles and subject to political interference, Germany’s intelligence services were for decades seen as at best useless, and at worst outright harmful. I remember a British spook in cold-war Berlin in the 1980s joking: “If you want Gorbachev to know something quickly, tell the Germans in strict secrecy: it will be on his desk

With a bit of imagination and courage, NATO can impose immediate costs for Russia’s hybrid war operations. Source: NATO Airborne Early...

What should be Europe’s strategy as aggressive imperial powers seek to conquer territory? Ancient Greece offers some guidance. Source:...

As Europe dithers, Russia’s successful drone offensive intensifies. By Edward Lucas Source: Land Forces of Ukraine From Munich to Lviv is...

The Putin regime realizes its war of aggression will be seriously affected if financial assets are handed to Ukraine. But it’s impotent....

The EU’s renewed focus on the Black Sea has created an opportunity for Romania, Turkey and Ukraine to shape a stronger defense against...

European authorities are no longer confining their response to Russia’s shadow fleet to sanctions lists. Image: Heikki Saukkomaa /...

Source: EUvsDisinfo Russia and Belarus conducted large-scale military exercises in mid-September as the Kremlin sought to put on a show...

The humanitarian crisis in Donbas is worsening, revealing the Kremlin’s neglect of its “new regions” in Ukraine and promising a bitter...

Moldovans are preparing for an election that will determine their future in Europe amid “unprecedented” Russian interference. Can they...

Armenia’s heavy reliance on Russia is coming to an end as Yerevan works to extend relationships and repair once-shattered regional ties....

A Taiwanese M1A2T Abrams US made main battle tank. / Taiwan Military News Agency Over the past few years, discussions on Taiwan’s...

A summit of mostly autocratic countries appears a gloomy signal for the West. But there’s a gap between China’s ambition and delivery....

Hungary’s premier has held the role in a vise-like grip for 15 years, but faces the most serious challenge yet at next-year’s election....

Russia’s leader aims to cherry-pick concessions from the West, while imposing Soviet-style barriers between his people and outsiders....

Photo: Land Forces Of Ukraine Facebook page Western leaders were in upbeat mood on Monday evening following their unprecedented White...

Once a reliable partner of the West, Georgia is now becoming a Russian-style dictatorship. The West must do more to avert this outcome....