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Russia’s relentless assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and a crisis of governance promise a cold winter. But there is hope ahead. Illustrative photo. Elimination of the Consequences of Hostile Shelling of Poltava Region / Photo – Ministry of Energy of Ukraine/Zmist The Kremlin’s forces have been striking Ukraine’s energy generation and distribution facilities almost daily. Attacks on November 25 alone left more than 40,000 people without power in the Kyiv region, 20,

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin believe their autocratic political and economic systems will gradually defeat the West’s democracies. How can they be stopped? President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin / Photo: Sergei Bobylev, RIA Novosti The liberal international order, which has dominated world affairs since World War II, is now collapsing, and China and Russia appear increasingly confident that top-down dictatorial regimes will fill the void. S

Mass grave site discovered in a forest near the Ukrainian city of Izium after its recapture from Russian forces in September 2022 / Source Insider Media The recent Hollywood movie “Nuremberg” provided a timely reminder of the role played by Soviet consent in the creation and legitimacy of the International Military Tribunal established to prosecute Nazi leaders after World War II. The broad outlines of the tribunal had been agreed before the end of the war during the February

The new US National Security Strategy is surprising only for those determined to ignore reality. By Edward Lucas In an ideal, imagined world, the US is a wise, friendly, and eternal mentor to its European allies. It uncomplainingly shoulders the burden of military and diplomatic leadership. It does not push its own interests too hard, whatever American voters may want.  Against the background of such wholly unrealistic assumptions, the new  US National Security Strategy  inde

While Russia's hybrid tactics are not new, their scale and sophistication in the digital age present unprecedented challenges. By Eitvydas Bajarūnas Executive Summary Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies — disinformation, cyber, sabotage, coercion — b

Is the Baltic now a NATO lake? Changing strategic geography, and the accession of Sweden and Finland to alliance membership might make it seem so, but the reality is more fraught. NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea / Source U.S. Navy Eight of the Baltic Sea states are now in NATO, and just one littoral country, Russia, is not. That might seem a mismatch of force — the so-called NATO lake — but appearances can be deceptive, and no one should underestimate the ability of Moscow’

Foto: Jurij Beljat poligonmedia.io US President Donald Trump’s latest bid to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days, with officials from Washington, Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe all seeking to shape the contours of a possible agreement. For now, discussion has centered on immediate matters, such as the wording of security guarantees. However, the far deeper historical roots that have long driven Russian violence

Putin’s refusal to accept any peace that does not ultimately lead to the subjugation of Ukraine is nothing new. For decades the Kremlin has paired hollow diplomatic language with foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) campaigns that present Moscow as a reasonable actor while it undermines sovereign neighbours. Recent talks in Geneva between US and Ukrainian negotiators indicate tentative progress in their discussion on a potential peace agreement. Doubts ha

A comparative assessment of the Russian and Ukrainian wartime economies underlines that Russia’s ongoing invasion has imposed far greater costs on Ukraine by depleting its manpower , worsening its demographics , and straining the country’s financial resources . Sustained support for the Ukrainian economy is therefore crucial as Europe and the United States seek to push Putin toward the negotiating table. Ukraine Economy / Source The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune American and Eu

Kremlin success would benefit the Beijing regime in a whole number of ways, including the theft of Ukrainian military technology. What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning?  That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vlad

Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, there has been growing alarm over the support that Moscow is receiving from fellow authoritarian regimes including Iran, North Korea, Belarus, and China. However, while Western officials have publicly raised concerns over material support for the Russian war effort, the issue of cooperation in the information sphere has received less attention. This is short-sighted. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has d

On 30 September 2025, Russia celebrated the anniversary of the ‘reunification of new regions’ – how pro-Kremlin disinformation refers to the occupation of parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. To mark the occasion, Russia minted coins depicting Ukrainian lands and organised lavish concerts where top Russian celebrities praised the Moscow’s ‘care’ for the occupied territories. Through these carefully choreographed events, the Kremlin sought to

Source: 47th separate mechanized brigade As Europe races to strengthen its defenses against the mounting threat posed by Russian drones, more and more countries are looking to learn from Ukraine’s experience. Speaking in October, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen acknowledged that Ukraine is currently a world leader in drone warfare and called on her European colleagues to “take all the experiences, all the new technology, all the innovation from Ukraine, and put it in

In many parts of Africa, memories of colonial exploitation, past foreign interference and broken promises remain vivid. These wounds – some still open – make fertile ground for narratives that tap into historical trauma, anti-Western sentiment and cultural conservatism. It is precisely this emotional terrain that Russian disinformation seeks to exploit. The TruthAfrica project was born out of a growing need to track and challenge the insidious spread of propaganda across the

Developments in 2025 have highlighted the reordering of regional power relations in the South Caucasus. There is opportunity for the West, but peril too. Fuzuli international airport, called the air gate of Karabakh / Source report.az Tensions over an Azerbaijan civilian airliner destroyed by a Russian missile, the cautious rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey , and Georgia’s increasingly confrontational stance toward the European Union (EU) reflect tectonic changes in

Ukraine’s setbacks are troubling but only part of the story. By Edward Lucas Consequences of enemy shelling of Ternopil (Photo: Suspilne Media) Corruption scandals in Kyiv, devastating attacks on infrastructure, the looming loss of Pokrovsk, and newly effective Russian innovation in  drone warfare  — the bad news from Ukraine keeps coming. Put the elements together and they make a bleak, even dire, picture. Ukraine is running out of soldiers, money, power supplies, and time,

The EU is doing well in some areas but as attacks rise, much more continent-wide cooperation is needed. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials The purpose of shadow warfare attacks on European countries by Russia and its proxies is multifaceted: to test the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, to destabilize societies and governments, and to provoke reactions that undermine

Art can deliver a powerful geopolitical message — so be careful. By Edward Lucas Source: State Border Guard Republic of Latvia One of the pleasures of my annual visit to Venice is seeing how the countries that I know best present themselves at the Biennale, the international summer-to-autumn cultural festival that features alternately art and, this year, architecture. The current crop includes an  Estonian  exhibit on home insulation,  Lithuania  on trees,  Ukraine  on roofs,

EU announced the establishment of the European Democracy Shield . The Shield, developed jointly by the European Commission and the European External Action Service, has a robust external dimension and will help empower strong and resilient democracies. Under its first pillar on safeguarding the integrity of the information space, the Joint Communication formulates the EU’s necessary response to the threat of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI). With this

The Kremlin has a vision for the future. It should make everyone very worried. By Gabrielė Klimaitė-Želvienė  A palm reader examines a woman’s hand and shakes her head. Something terrible and dark lurks in her future. The client sees the palmist’s frowns and becomes frightened.   “Will I get sick?”  “No,” says the palm reader.   “Will I die then?”   The old woman again shakes her head.   “So what will happen?”  “Nothing at all,” the palm reader says. “Nothing will ever change