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Recent events show the Russian-Belarusian playbook moving from migrant pressure towards coercion, presenting Europe with some tough dilemmas. Photo: STATE BORDER GUARD SERVICE at the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Lithuania Russia’s shadow war against Europe is a multiple pronged attack on NATO and other countries. In the northeastern sector of this front line, shoving developing world migrants through border fences has long played a role. In October, this campai

Illustration: Wix The Russian invasion of Ukraine has underlined the role of space communications infrastructure in securing internet connectivity on the modern battlefield. Russia is currently developing a satellite network project meant to serve as a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink. This could give the Kremlin a dangerous edge in Ukraine, while transforming the security and space safety landscape on a global scale. Since it was established in 2015, SpaceX owned lo

The old talk of a peaceful European future comes to a shuddering halt in the lands of eastern Ukraine. Kramatorsk / Instagram: kryvokulskyi Europe’s longest road, the E-40, begins its 5,000-mile journey at the port of Calais, long the gateway to the British Isles, and ends in the Altai Mountains of Kazakhstan. It’s part of the E-road system, which aims to help unite Europe in trade and to aid development and ties between neighbors; until 2014, it was doing just that. Now, whe

By Agnia Grigas Agnia Grigas These are tense times for NATO’s European frontline states. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is well into its fifth year. US President Donald Trump is reducing troop presence in Europe and questioning America’s commitment to NATO, while the European powers are yet to take on full responsibility for their continent’s security. And the war in the Middle East is consuming finite resources and diverting attention from other security topics. In this challe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy is once again being queried, but opponents are asking the wrong question. Donald Trump thinks Ukraine needs a new president. Vladimir Putin agrees, as does Elon Musk, and the point was once made by that great friend of Ukraine, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. So, let’s imagine that, somehow, fair and free elections with no Russian interference were to be held tomorrow in Ukraine. Who would win? According to a September 23 public opinion survey c

Source: Bernd Dittrich / Unsplash WASHINGTON — Earlier last week, Ukrainian forces reportedly were forced to cancel drone missions amid sudden restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service, that interrupted their communications. Ukrainian officials and military units reported dropped connections and lowered operation speeds, although the full extent of the disruptions and the reasons behind them remain unclear. By October 15, co

The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available. Source: ScanSpecialties The Russian threat rises and rises. The risks and costs from its shadow (and sometimes open) attacks are increasing, and at some point soon there will be a serious crisis, perhaps brought on by the casualties from a successful version of the Kremlin’s bungled strike at Leipzig Airport in Au

Source: Alexey Larionov / Unsplash From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war. So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin

Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital. Photo by Marina Militare The alliance cannot sustain collective defense if its citizens doubt why it exists, distrust what it says, or come to believe it is responsible for the threats it confronts. Public trust in NATO should be seen as a key part of Europe’s security infrastructure. Soci

Russia’s abuse of civilians in occupied Ukraine is in the news, but it’s far more widespread than realized. Source: h_kharkov/Instagram Russia’s attacks on civilians and refusal of humanitarian aid for besieged frontline Ukrainians in the occupied territories have become a powerful symbol of the Kremlin’s barbarism. In recent weeks, the results of this anti-humanitarian campaign have been highlighted in the small, occupied town of Oleshky. Conditions are critical in the town,

The Kremlin-directed attacks on Europe are a sign of weakness. Europe must craft a robust new response to raise the pressure on Russia. Photo: Panzerbrigade 45 Litauen Facebook page Europe’s response to Russia’s increasingly ferocious attacks on Ukraine and a widening shadow war campaign against European NATO has been familiar: strategic restraint. That strategy is increasingly outdated. Something new is needed. Hybrid warfare operates in the space between strategic necessity

Russia is promoting a picture of the Baltic region in which NATO is preparing to attack Russia, Baltic governments are heavily militarising, and Russian speakers face imminent persecution. Taken together, these narratives create an atmosphere of permanent crisis in which military escalation appears increasingly plausible. This allows Moscow to exert pressure even without taking overt military action – the possibility of conflict itself becomes an instrument of coercion. In la

Russia’s full-scale invasion has transformed almost every aspect of Ukrainian life, including people’s faith. Dormition Cathedral of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra / Photo: Evstratij Zorja/Facebook Polling suggests the war has made Ukrainians more religious. But a closer look at more than two decades of data suggests a more complex picture. While 12 years of Russian aggression have strengthened religious commitment among a significant minority of Ukrainians, the relationship between

Moscow routinely portrays elections in democratic countries as fraudulent and controlled from abroad. Yet Russia’s own parliamentary election offers no genuine political choice: the Kremlin controls the field and has eliminated even the possibility of voting against the war in Ukraine. As the war’s effects reach deeper into everyday life, growing public dissatisfaction is being kept out of the ballot box. When post-Soviet states turn away from Russia, as Armenia or Moldova ha

Gen Z shuns Putin’s war and quietly mourns lost freedoms and vanished opportunities. Photo: TASS / Kirill Kuhmar Russia’s Supreme Court decision to remove the only registered party openly campaigning for peace, Yabloko, from the ballot for September’s State Duma election has revived the question of how many Russians oppose the Kremlin’s war and how much space remains to express that opposition. It is certainly a signal of the regime’s resolve. After all, if a Western-style l

In the latest wave of climate-related narratives spread by the Kremlin, climate change is a vehicle to reinforce familiar disinformation tropes: the alleged authoritarianism and hypocrisy of the EU, Europe’s supposed self-inflicted decline through sanctions against Russia, and, ultimately, the claim that Europe has no choice but to restore relations with Russia as a supplier of affordable oil and gas. Climate change used to be a fringe topic in Kremlin propaganda. It was rare

The increased focus on drones can assist militaries in many ways, but this technology is far from a panacea. Corsair Autonomous Vessel / Picture source: Saronic On July 12, three explosives-laden Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) motored into an enemy port, maneuvered past whatever defenses may have been in place, and blew up a drydock cradling a submarine undergoing maintenance. If the USVs had been Ukrainian and the target had been Russian, the robot raid would have been old

Building a supply chain independent from China is impractical. For now, leverage data, connectivity, and automation to reduce risk. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine How can the US and other democracies safely use drones, including those made in China or using Chinese components? Commercial and civilian drone use has expanded in recent years and will undoubtedly continue to grow as tech evolves. Drones use the airspace in ways that challenge existing regula

Ukrainian and foreign fighters with experience of the front are scouring the globe to find the best technology to see off Moscow’s forces. Ukraine, with limited manpower, needs asymmetric advantages wherever they can be found. Innovation is decentralized across many Ukrainian units, and across the country, volunteers, engineers, and soldiers are working hand-in-hand to develop new technology. But there’s a limit to commanders’ capacity to withdraw soldiers from the front to t

Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming the primary source of information for millions of people. For authoritarian states, control over generative AI has turned into a critically important element of controlling and managing the masses. This is precisely why Russian language-model developments and the services connected to them deserve close attention. But are they really a “sovereign” technology of Russian origin? Consider the example of YandexGPT – a large languag