WARFARE

‘We didn’t kidnap anyone’, Russia’s then-ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, insisted in 2023. ‘We saved these children’. The ambassador was not simply denying the systematic deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children by Russian occupation forces in Ukraine, a crime for which there is a growing body of evidence from international organisations, researchers, and human rights groups. He was using a well-known playbook – an information campaign seeking to paint t

The EU's new defense industry program has the right architecture. The factories, the workers, and the political will are another matter. Rheinmetall AG artillery ammunition factory in Lithuania / A. Pliadis / Lithuanian MOD Europe’s new €1.5bn ($1.8bn) defense industry program has a line item nobody expected. Factories built to produce counter-drone weapons can now claim EU money to protect themselves from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Commission adopted the work progr

An exercise testing NATO responses to hybrid attacks revealed a need for the West to be more nimble, and willing to mimic enemy tactics to defend itself. Source: NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) At Lithuania’s Šiauliai International Airport, a delegation receives reports of sudden signal degradation and communications disruption across Ukraine. The news is an early indicator of spillover from an enhanced Russian jamming operation and raises serious quest

One of the features that makes propaganda effective is that it reshapes how people understand the world around them, turning war into ‘peace’ and lies into ‘truth’. Propaganda, disinformation, and information manipulation more generally do not work like an order from a commander which makes a person take up arms; its influence is more gradual and more insidious. The non-governmental group LingvaLexa, with the support of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and the

Ukraine’s women are central to sustaining the state, supporting the front and holding society together under the extreme pressure of Russian aggression. Photo: Daniel Kosoy / UNITED24 The country offers a striking case study of the way war reshapes the roles of women and men, not only on the battlefield, but across society, the economy, and national recovery. Approximately 100,000 women are serving in Ukraine’s armed forces out of a total of one million personnel. Around 5,50

Western nations can do more to stop criminal gangs forcing Ukrainians into sexual slavery. By Luca Iaconelli / Unsplash Amid widespread suffering and more than 180,000 documented war crimes committed by Russia during its war on Ukraine, the heightened risk of sex trafficking of Ukrainians has been largely absent from US and European policy discussions. Millions of forcibly displaced people, in particular women and children, have become increasingly vulnerable to transnationa

A crashed Russian Shahed-136 drone (The National Guard of Ukraine) Bottom lines up front The Islamic Republic of Iran should be held accountable for its role in supplying Russia with the means to carry out international crimes against civilians in Ukraine. Researchers have collected evidence indicating that Iranian officials could be held legally liable for supplying its drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine. There are several international and domestic legal mechanisms tha

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approached the four-year mark in early 2026, the international media widely reported that the war had now lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison made for attention-grabbing headlines, but it was not entirely accurate. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine War did not begin in 2022; it started eight years earlier in 2014. Efforts to end the war must reflect this reality. Despite

For decades, Western defense strategy assumed that technological superiority ensured victory. That assumption proves false in modern conflict. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Conflict is being shaped less by the performance of advanced systems than by the ability to produce, sustain, and regenerate them at scale. Mass is the new buzzword, along with non-admiring references to “exquisite” high-end systems There is now a realization of a growing gap between

Kyiv is disrupting Russia’s African networks. That reduces Moscow’s ability to raise money and to pressure Europe’s most vulnerable frontier. By EUvsDisinfo Russia’s war against Ukraine is increasingly being contested in Africa, where Ukraine has begun targeting Russian networks far beyond the European battlefield. The operations are limited in scale but strategically focused, aimed at disrupting the infrastructure Moscow relies on to sustain its war effort and pressure NATO’

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials An unidentified object crosses into Lithuanian airspace from Kaliningrad and is quickly picked up by NATO radar systems. It’s small, fast, and unregistered. Shortly thereafter, three more similar objects joined in formation. NATO aircraft are scram

Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency. Photo: Vardan Papykian / Unsplash Russia’s Ministry of Defense has a spending problem. That’s not just because the country started a war of choice against Ukraine, at a staggering human and economic cost; it’s also because the military system is riddled with corruption, and no one has been able to get a grip on it. Of course, it’s true that Vladimir Putin’s

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities. Over the past year, this author reviewed court records, indictments, and investigative reports to build what is probably the first open-source database of major known cryptocurrency money-laundering schemes. It includes 164 cases spanning roughly two decades and shows roughly $350bn in illicit flows have moved through crypto-lin

Despite being freed by the Belarusian dictatorship, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski says the West should recognize hostage diplomacy as a dead end. Ales Bialiatski, founder of the human rights center “Viasna” and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Vilnius, Lithuania. December 18, 2025. Photo: Belsat “Does Belarusian give us more sausage?” It is a question the Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka once put to his own people. What does the Belarusian language actually give you

Ukraine has emerged from its harshest wartime winter with its energy system battered by relentless Russian strikes designed to freeze civilians into submission. At the same time, a sustained FIMI campaign sought to spin the blackouts into narratives of Ukrainian weakness, division and European fatigue – claims starkly disproven by sustained public and governmental support across the continent. Ukraine has just endured its harshest winter since the start of the full-scale war.

We should care about Russian provocations but it’s extremely important how we care. "Putin - war criminal" poster on the wall of Narva Fortress, May 9, 2024 Source: Dmitri Fedotkin/ERR A small Telegram channel has begun in recent weeks to promote the idea of a so-called “Narva People’s Republic” in Estonia’s northeastern border city of Narva, where almost all the inhabitants are Russian speakers. The campaign uses separatist slogans, meme-style content, and imagery that imita

The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil. Wagner Group mercenaries in Africa. Photo: Grey Zone / Telegram The Russian Duma is about to adopt a law permitting the extraterritorial engagement of the armed forces to free Russian citizens arrested or detained by foreign courts. The government commission on legislation has just approved the respective draft legislation.

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the outbreak of hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories (TOT) have faced a steadily tightening system of information control. This process accelerated dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Today, an estimated 5 to 6 million people living under occupation exist in a prolonged state of information limbo. They are cut off from Ukrain

Russia’s dependence on American technology shatters the Kremlin’s invincibility narrative, leading to a slowdown in advance on the front. Claims of Russia’s invincibility became a central element of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine as we examined in our recent article . Faith in the greatness and self-sufficiency of the Russian army has been turned into a mantra of Kremlin propaganda. However, the war against Ukraine has shown the world that this narrative, like the myth

Imagine a world where your past is not yours – where every event, every hero, every town can be deleted and replaced with someone else’s script. For Ukraine, this has not been speculative fiction but but a political practice it continues to resist. Centuries of Ukrainian history have been rewritten by Russia, which corrupts the files, reformats archives, so that they conform to its imperial design. In late 2025, Vladimir Putin signed Decree No. 858 , a technical document outl

Some young people resist Kremlin pressure to create a generation of Putin-supporting nationalists. The West must recognize and support them. Russian anti-war activist Maxim Lypkan / Source: memopzk.org “Wars are not won by generals, but by schoolteachers,” Vladimir Putin said in 2023, in a statement that has become a cornerstone of his approach to youth indoctrination. The regime is determined to reshape young Russians’ minds by replacing critical thinking with militarized pa

The mythology of Russian military invincibility is not new, but since the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it has become one of the central pillars of the Kremlin’s information warfare. Research shows this narrative is deliberately engineered to serve geopolitical, military and psychological objectives; in particular to deter Western support for Ukraine, demoralise Ukrainian society, and project an image abroad of unstoppable Russian power . The invincibility myth depic

Russia’s poorest people face a grim choice — an existence of grinding poverty, or gambling your life and limbs on the regime’s imperial adventure. Erik Romanenko / TASS Russia’s war in Ukraine is not being fought by a united “multiethnic people,” as Vladimir Putin likes to claim. The enormous burden of the fighting and the death toll has been disproportionately borne by the peoples of the poorest and most remote parts of the country. New analysis by The Bell shows that the h

Throughout 2025, Russian officials were repeatedly shut out of the governing bodies of international organisations – a direct consequence of Kremlin’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and its escalating campaign of hybrid interference worldwide. A glimpse of what’s to come? 2025 was a bad year for Russia’s international standing. As Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recently described on Facebook, Ukraine and its allies worked hard throughout

Five recurring false narratives the Kremlin uses to justify and distort its war against Ukraine. Russia has carried out online disinformation and FIMI campaigns against Europe and Ukraine for over a decade. After the illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, these activities grew rapidly in scale and intensity. The Kremlin now uses information manipulation as a key tool in its confrontation with the West. Alongside the war in Ukraine, Russia is also waging a

The Kremlin blames others for not extending The New START Treaty. But Moscow played a big role in undermining the Treaty long before its demise. On 6 February 2026, The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty, expired . As that happened, the Kremlin both launched and continued FIMI campaigns that sought to minimise Moscow’s responsibility for the Treaty’s lapse, blame the expiration on outside actors, generate doomsday paranoia, and proclaim a new nuc

For decades, television was considered the primary mouthpiece of propaganda. The digital age, however, has elevated a new and potentially more dangerous instrument of influence: video games. Under the guise of entertainment, they shape worldviews and political narratives, making propaganda subtle, scalable, and effective. Unlike passive media, video games offer players not only a story but an experience in which they actively participate. As a result, ideological messages emb

Russia’s use of cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions has exposed a gap in the international community’s attempts to throttle Moscow’s war machine. Photo: Agency «Moscow» / snob.ru The emergence of the A7A5 stablecoin represents a transformative shift in global financial evasion. Until now, the international community has relied on the dominance of the US dollar and the SWIFT system to enforce economic order, but the rise of ruble-backed digital assets suggests a sophisticated

The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast. Could Western armies adapt as quickly? As the worst winter in many years settled across Ukraine late last year, the 600,000-strong Russian invasion force innovated to embrace the cold — and briefly gained a tactical edge all along the 700-mile front line. The Ukrainians innovated right back, ultimately blunting that edge. That dance — measure versus countermeasure — should reassure frie

Europe needs to get on the front foot to tackle Russia’s hybrid warfare, a Polish deputy defense minister warned as he unveiled details of a new anti-drone systems. Warmate loitering munition. (Source: Polish Ministry of National Defense) Cezary Tomczyk, secretary of state in Poland’s Ministry of Defense, has provided new details about a new €2bn (£2.3bn) anti-drone system which will be the largest of its kind on the continent, and able to detect and neutralize enemy drones

Russia’s foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) operations are diverse, entrenched, well-resourced, and coordinated. They are also linked globally to culture through ‘Cultural Heritage Exploitation’, or CHX. CHX is a multi-institutional endeavour with spatial, temporal, cognitive, and material aspects. In practice, it fuses pro-Russian historical propaganda to cultural objects, and it is one of the tools deployed to legitimise Russia’s war against Ukraine a

Ukrainian Droid Raw 12.7 UGV fitted with M2 Browning heavy machine gun during field trials. (Source: Ukrmilitary Pages / X) Ukrainian army officials claim to have made military history in late 2025 by deploying a single land drone armed with a mounted machine gun to hold a front line position for almost six weeks. The remote-controlled unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) reportedly completed a 45-day combat mission in eastern Ukraine while undergoing maintenance and reloading ever

Russian attacks against energy facilities in winter were designed to freeze Ukraine into submission. Russian disinformation narratives justify these attacks and blame Ukraine’s leadership for them. Targeted attacks to break Ukraine’s resistance Russia has recently used a bitter cold snap in Ukraine to inflict terrible pain upon Ukrainian citizens by attacking the country’s energy infrastructure. Among other strikes, Russia launched a massive missile and drone assault against

Source: Kremlin.ru The new year has begun much as 2025 ended, with Russia rejecting key elements of peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. In early January, Russian Foreign Ministry officials confirmed they would not accept the presence of European troops in Ukraine as part of proposed postwar security guarantees for Kyiv. This followed a series of similar recent statements from Kremlin officials reiterating Moscow’s uncompromising position and dismissing a 20

The US Secretary of War’s acquisition reforms can find inspiration and assistance in Kyiv. Ukrainian small-sized Peklo cruise missiles / Illustrative photo: Office of the President of Ukraine “The defense acquisition system as you know it is dead,” US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared at the National War College in December as he addressed America’s top defense-industry leaders. “Speed replaces process, money follows need, joint problems drive action, experimentati

Ukraine is suffering badly, with implications for significant population movement. Western allies can help, if they acknowledge the threat. Blackout in Kyiv Cornered by an ever-narrowing range of options to advance his war of aggression, Vladimir Putin is making decisions that worsen his position. The chess term is zugzwang, and it explains why the Kremlin has decided to play one of its few remaining cards. Unable to defeat the Ukrainian army, Putin has declared war on Ukrain

Ukraine has made huge strides in its military technology but ingenuity alone won’t be enough for Kyiv to prevail. Photo: Sergey Okunev / NV Ever since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has compensated for its disadvantage in traditional firepower through innovation . Unmanned systems, particularly first-person view (FPV) drones, helped its forces blunt Russian offensives and impose heavy costs on attacking units. Over time, this approach hardened into what was described as

The aircraft have a near-unique ability to hit Russian targets but only if Europe provides them with the right munitions. Ukrainian F-16 with GBU-39 aerial bomb, November 2025. Photo credits: martes1k ( t.me/maratix1 ) In a virtuoso display of air-defense prowess unimaginable for any European member of NATO, Ukrainian forces shot down 34 out of 35 cruise missiles on December 22. It was even more notable given Ukraine’s defenders were also warding off another 638 Russian rocke

F-16 fighter jets patrolling over Greenland. Photo: The Danish Armed Forces Bottom lines up front: In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility. The White House is correct that Greenland and the waters around it are a strategic asset—one that Europe has failed to recognize in recent years. If Europe wants to ensure that no outside power can exercise control over Greenland, then it

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has increasingly militarized the Black Sea region, presenting a threat to both NATO and its littoral partners, especially Ukraine and Moldova. Indeed, the region has become a testing ground for Russian hybrid warfare operations. These operations, which engage adversaries below the threshold of war, often seek to undermine civil society with tactics such as assaults on the integrity of elections, attacks on infrastruct

Photo: Sergey Okunev / NV Ukraine is currently at the epicenter of radical changes taking place in the way modern wars are fought. However, much of the world is still busy preparing for the wars of yesterday. European armies are only combat-ready on paper, while the invincibility of the United States military is based largely on past victories. The current state of affairs is far from unprecedented. In early 1940, Polish officers tried to warn their French counterparts about

Europe needs to share intelligence and exploit legal “gray zones” to tackle Russia’s sanctions-busting shadow fleet. Russian shadow fleet tanker Kiwala detained off the Estonian coast between the island of Aegna and the port of Muuga, east of Tallinn, Friday, April 11, 2025. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR The fleet, hundreds of ships strong, enables Moscow to circumvent curbs on oil sales and engage in sabotage, particularly in the Baltic, posing security, environmental, and economic

2025 was certainly a bad year to be flying in or out of Lithuania. According to the Ministry of the Interior , 320 flights have been disrupted at Vilnius and Kaunas airports because of cigarette-smuggling air balloons crossing from Belarus, causing sixty hours of closures and affecting 47,000 passengers. But the fallout has been even harsher for around 185 Lithuanian lorries stranded in Belarus over Christmas, after the authorities there barred them from returning home. Alth

Source DJI / CineD When cyberattacks and missile strikes converge on the same targets, infrastructure resilience becomes more than a technical mandate; it becomes a matter of national survival. For Ukraine, this is not a hypothetical future scenario. On the contrary, it has been daily reality for more than a decade. Since 2014, Ukraine’s power grid, banking system, telecommunications networks, and digital infrastructure have faced sustained and increasingly sophisticated atta

Russia will step-up its shadow war on Europe in the New Year, attacking infrastructure and disrupting democracy in a bid to exploit Western disunity. Russian drone on the roof of a barn in Moldova / Source Belcy 24 In 2026, the Kremlin will seek to demonstrate that Russia retains the initiative and remains a great power despite its economic and military decline. This is designed in part to emphasize a country on the brink of historic success and to build on images of Presiden

Russia’s Geran attack drones have morphed from crude versions of Iranian Shahed UAVs into an affordable and flexible strike system, with deadly results. Russia’s Geran 2 attack drone / Source Sergej Flesh Facebook page Moscow’s forces have launched nearly 50,000 Geran/Shahed drones into Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of 2022 and shifted to a near-continuous rhythm of strikes that have overwhelmed defenses, disabled infrastructure, and killed families in their homes.

Mass grave site discovered in a forest near the Ukrainian city of Izium after its recapture from Russian forces in September 2022 / Source Insider Media The recent Hollywood movie “Nuremberg” provided a timely reminder of the role played by Soviet consent in the creation and legitimacy of the International Military Tribunal established to prosecute Nazi leaders after World War II. The broad outlines of the tribunal had been agreed before the end of the war during the February

While Russia's hybrid tactics are not new, their scale and sophistication in the digital age present unprecedented challenges. By Eitvydas Bajarūnas Executive Summary Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies — disinformation, cyber, sabotage, coercion — b