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By Don Fontijn / Unsplash Despite suffering an estimated 1.2 million casualties in Ukraine since 2022, Russian forces continue to replenish their ranks at a pace that roughly matches battlefield losses. Attempts to explain this phenomenon by focusing on coercion or financial incentives are incomplete. In fact, enlistment bonuses for soldiers have been reduced or eliminated across many Russian regions since 2025. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence indicates that approximatel

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials An unidentified object crosses into Lithuanian airspace from Kaliningrad and is quickly picked up by NATO radar systems. It’s small, fast, and unregistered. Shortly thereafter, three more similar objects joined in formation. NATO aircraft are scram

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency. Photo: Vardan Papykian / Unsplash Russia’s Ministry of Defense has a spending problem. That’s not just because the country started a war of choice against Ukraine, at a staggering human and economic cost; it’s also because the military system is riddled with corruption, and no one has been able to get a grip on it. Of course, it’s true that Vladimir Putin’s

From Texas to Alberta to Catalonia, the Kremlin amplifies separatist causes abroad while jailing those who voice similar ideas inside Russia. The Kremlin routinely accuses other countries of instigating “colour revolutions” and backing separatist movements. Given the Kremlin’s well-documented flair for projection , it comes as little surprise that Moscow engages in exactly the kind of behaviour it denounces by backing separatist movements in Western countries, both openly and

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

Before taking a deeper dive into the 4th EEAS Report on FIMI Threats , let’s first look at the pro-Kremlin narratives observed over the past week. Pro-Kremlin FIMI activity focused on distorting both security developments and Europe’s economic outlook. One example was the false claim that the rocket targeting a joint US-UK military base located on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia was launched from a submarine in a false flag attack by the US . Unsubstantiated false fla

The danger is not only that Slovakia is becoming Hungary. It is that Orbán's style of politics is prevailing across all of Europe. “They are the risk,” reads an election poster for the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, beneath images of opposition leader Péter Magyar, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. / Photo: Balint Szentgallay/Nur Photo/TT When Hungary votes on April 12 , it will test whether Viktor Orbán’s 16-year

New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities. Over the past year, this author reviewed court records, indictments, and investigative reports to build what is probably the first open-source database of major known cryptocurrency money-laundering schemes. It includes 164 cases spanning roughly two decades and shows roughly $350bn in illicit flows have moved through crypto-lin

Despite being freed by the Belarusian dictatorship, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski says the West should recognize hostage diplomacy as a dead end. Ales Bialiatski, founder of the human rights center “Viasna” and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Vilnius, Lithuania. December 18, 2025. Photo: Belsat “Does Belarusian give us more sausage?” It is a question the Belarusian dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka once put to his own people. What does the Belarusian language actually give you

Ukraine has emerged from its harshest wartime winter with its energy system battered by relentless Russian strikes designed to freeze civilians into submission. At the same time, a sustained FIMI campaign sought to spin the blackouts into narratives of Ukrainian weakness, division and European fatigue – claims starkly disproven by sustained public and governmental support across the continent. Ukraine has just endured its harshest winter since the start of the full-scale war.

We should care about Russian provocations but it’s extremely important how we care. "Putin - war criminal" poster on the wall of Narva Fortress, May 9, 2024 Source: Dmitri Fedotkin/ERR A small Telegram channel has begun in recent weeks to promote the idea of a so-called “Narva People’s Republic” in Estonia’s northeastern border city of Narva, where almost all the inhabitants are Russian speakers. The campaign uses separatist slogans, meme-style content, and imagery that imita

Have you ever paused at a glossy video promising that somewhere out there, families flourish effortlessly, women glow with confidence, and there are simply no gender issues to speak of? A growing chorus of YouTubers and lifestyle commentators, often paid by the Kremlin , paints precisely that picture of Russia. In their telling, it is a haven that has struck the “perfect balance” between conservatism and feminism. Russian women, they say, combine devotion to family with ambit

This article reflects key arguments from a debate hosted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) on 16 January 2026 Ukraine is central to European history One of the most persistent distortions in discussions about Russia’s war against Ukraine is the assumption that Ukraine is historically marginal, an “edge case” recently pulled into European affairs. This assumption is not only wrong; it actively reproduces a Kremlin-centred view of history. Ukraine has been a core s

The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil. Wagner Group mercenaries in Africa. Photo: Grey Zone / Telegram The Russian Duma is about to adopt a law permitting the extraterritorial engagement of the armed forces to free Russian citizens arrested or detained by foreign courts. The government commission on legislation has just approved the respective draft legislation.

Kremlin messaging has wasted little time pivoting toward the Middle East and Iran. A key objective has been to link Ukraine to the conflict. Disinformation narratives included attempts to tie the 2014 Maidan protests to broader regional instability and claims that Ukraine could stage a ‘provocation’ to regain international attention. The conflict involving Iran creates a challenging situation for Russia. Moscow failed to present itself as a reliable ally, offering little visi

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the outbreak of hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories (TOT) have faced a steadily tightening system of information control. This process accelerated dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Today, an estimated 5 to 6 million people living under occupation exist in a prolonged state of information limbo. They are cut off from Ukrain

Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math. Source: Oneindia War in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up, to the delight of the Kremlin — but the rise may prove too short-lived and too modest to save the Russian government from otherwise imminent spending cuts this year. Just two months into 2026, the Kremlin’s budget is already shot to pieces. On March 3, Brent climbed to $83 a barrel , its highest sin

Russia’s dependence on American technology shatters the Kremlin’s invincibility narrative, leading to a slowdown in advance on the front. Claims of Russia’s invincibility became a central element of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine as we examined in our recent article . Faith in the greatness and self-sufficiency of the Russian army has been turned into a mantra of Kremlin propaganda. However, the war against Ukraine has shown the world that this narrative, like the myth