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Recent events show the Russian-Belarusian playbook moving from migrant pressure towards coercion, presenting Europe with some tough dilemmas. Photo: STATE BORDER GUARD SERVICE at the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Lithuania Russia’s shadow war against Europe is a multiple pronged attack on NATO and other countries. In the northeastern sector of this front line, shoving developing world migrants through border fences has long played a role. In October, this campai

The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available. Source: ScanSpecialties The Russian threat rises and rises. The risks and costs from its shadow (and sometimes open) attacks are increasing, and at some point soon there will be a serious crisis, perhaps brought on by the casualties from a successful version of the Kremlin’s bungled strike at Leipzig Airport in Au

Source: Alexey Larionov / Unsplash From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war. So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin

Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital. Photo by Marina Militare The alliance cannot sustain collective defense if its citizens doubt why it exists, distrust what it says, or come to believe it is responsible for the threats it confronts. Public trust in NATO should be seen as a key part of Europe’s security infrastructure. Soci

Russia’s abuse of civilians in occupied Ukraine is in the news, but it’s far more widespread than realized. Source: h_kharkov/Instagram Russia’s attacks on civilians and refusal of humanitarian aid for besieged frontline Ukrainians in the occupied territories have become a powerful symbol of the Kremlin’s barbarism. In recent weeks, the results of this anti-humanitarian campaign have been highlighted in the small, occupied town of Oleshky. Conditions are critical in the town,

Russia is promoting a picture of the Baltic region in which NATO is preparing to attack Russia, Baltic governments are heavily militarising, and Russian speakers face imminent persecution. Taken together, these narratives create an atmosphere of permanent crisis in which military escalation appears increasingly plausible. This allows Moscow to exert pressure even without taking overt military action – the possibility of conflict itself becomes an instrument of coercion. In la