The Moldova-Romania Unification Riddle

For the first time since Moldovan independence, reuniting with Romania is backed by leaders in both countries, and public opinion is warming.

The once far-fetched idea is being discussed not only in Chișinău and Bucharest, but also in Brussels, which says the two nations should decide their own fates. For Moscow, it represents a nightmare. 

Moldova was part of Romania from 1918 until 1940, when it was annexed by the Soviet Union as part of Moscow’s pact with Nazi Germany. It declared independence when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

A nation of 2.3 million people, Moldova lies between Ukraine and Romania which is a member of both the European Union and NATO. Unification would require referendums in both countries and is complicated by frozen conflicts in the separatist republic of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia, both of which have strong ties to Russia and oppose unification.

“Unification is being discussed now because of the [Ukraine] war and geopolitical realignment,” said Armand Gosu, associate professor at Bucharest University’s Faculty of Political Sciences. “The chances are low, but they do exist.”

Tensions have intensified since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Moscow has stepped up its information warfare since Moldova started accession negotiations with the EU in 2024. It opened its first negotiation chapter in June and hopes its entry will be fast-tracked by Brussels. About 80% of the population speaks Romanian, which the Soviets called Moldovan to discourage any idea of a common history with Romania.

While joining the EU is Plan A, some believe the country, which is one of the poorest in Europe, will continue to struggle as an independent state and needs to consider merging with Romania, which shares a common history and language.

“It is getting more and more difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy, as a sovereign country, and of course to resist Russia,” Moldovan President Maia Sandu said in January.

More than 850,000 citizens in Moldova, including Sandu, had been granted Romanian citizenship by 2024, according to official data quoted by Radio Chișinău. 

Sandu, who says EU membership would guarantee the country’s future as a democracy, said she would vote yes in a hypothetical referendum to unite with Romania as an alternative to the EU. She is the first Moldovan president to publicly express this view.

Eugen Osmochescu, Moldova’s deputy prime minister, also suggested union with Romania as a backup plan if Moldova fails to join the EU in 2028. He warned that there needs to be swift and visible progress in accession talks, and any delays could strengthen Moscow’s efforts to undermine public support for European integration.

He also acknowledged Moldova’s vulnerability compared with Ukraine. The country lacks both a significant defense industry and the military capacity demonstrated by Kyiv. “We are not as resilient as Ukrainians,” he said.

Ileana Racheru, a political scientist in Bucharest, said unification depends on what happens in Ukraine and any peace settlement agreed there.

“In the worst-case scenario, in which Russia is given the south of Ukraine [and so borders Moldova], Moldova would have no chance as an independent state,” she said. “The authorities in Chișinău would probably have to decide whether they want to place their country under a Russian dictatorship or try to unite with Romania.” 

Romanian President Nicușor Dan says his country is ready for unification with Moldova as long as a majority of Moldovan citizens support it, echoing a declaration by Romania’s parliament in 2018.

Moldova would automatically become a member of the EU and NATO if it joined Romania, much like East Germany after it united with the Federal Republic in 1990.

A May survey found 72% of Romanians favor reunification, while opinions across the border were more divided. A poll in March found 44% of Moldovans backed the move and 39% were opposed, marking a significant shift since 2015, when the split was 21% in favor and 53% against.

Support is even stronger among Moldova’s diaspora, which includes about a third of its citizens, many in the EU. Some 61% were in favor and 24% opposed. 

“It’s no secret Bucharest is hatching plans to annex Moldova. This is nothing new to us; we talk about it all the time,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said after Romania’s Chamber of Deputies adopted a bill in June authorizing its government to begin unification talks with Chisinau.

In reality, there is little doubt about Russia’s aims. Its 2022 war plan was to drive through southern Ukraine and link up to Transnistria so that Moldova would face a Russian army on its doorstep. When that failed, the Kremlin launched well-funded efforts organized by its intelligence agencies to subvert and destabilize the country, including payments to buy the loyalty of people in Gagauzia.

Sandu’s priority is to fast-track Moldova’s accession to the EU by 2028, and the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the breakaway region of Transnistria “will not become ⁠an obstacle” in its path to membership.

Marta Kos, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, said Moldova was well ahead of other EU candidate countries that benefit from accession funds or Growth Plans and should open all negotiating chapters “as soon as possible.” The bloc is paying €1.9bn ($2.2bn) to assist the country’s growth from 2025-7.

“In recent years, I’ve seen a country that has defended itself from foreign meddling and hybrid attacks and has chosen the European path,” she told the European Parliament on July 8. “This sovereign choice deserves our full support.”

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Romania was the first country to recognize Moldova’s independence on the same day it was declared. Moldova’s first president, Mircea Snegur, spoke openly of a common identity between Moldovans and Romanians and appeared open to reunification. 

Thirty-five years on, it may finally be possible.

---

By Alison Mutler. Alison Mutler is a British journalist who has been working in Romania for almost 35 years. She was the Associated Press bureau chief for 25 years and was part of a team that covered the Romanian revolution for the British TV channel ITN. For the past five years, she has worked for the Romanian-English website Universul.net and has been its director for the past three years. Article first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.