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Recent events show the Russian-Belarusian playbook moving from migrant pressure towards coercion, presenting Europe with some tough dilemmas. Photo: STATE BORDER GUARD SERVICE at the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Lithuania Russia’s shadow war against Europe is a multiple pronged attack on NATO and other countries. In the northeastern sector of this front line, shoving developing world migrants through border fences has long played a role. In October, this campai

Illustration: Wix The Russian invasion of Ukraine has underlined the role of space communications infrastructure in securing internet connectivity on the modern battlefield. Russia is currently developing a satellite network project meant to serve as a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink. This could give the Kremlin a dangerous edge in Ukraine, while transforming the security and space safety landscape on a global scale. Since it was established in 2015, SpaceX owned lo

The old talk of a peaceful European future comes to a shuddering halt in the lands of eastern Ukraine. Kramatorsk / Instagram: kryvokulskyi Europe’s longest road, the E-40, begins its 5,000-mile journey at the port of Calais, long the gateway to the British Isles, and ends in the Altai Mountains of Kazakhstan. It’s part of the E-road system, which aims to help unite Europe in trade and to aid development and ties between neighbors; until 2014, it was doing just that. Now, whe

By Agnia Grigas Agnia Grigas These are tense times for NATO’s European frontline states. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is well into its fifth year. US President Donald Trump is reducing troop presence in Europe and questioning America’s commitment to NATO, while the European powers are yet to take on full responsibility for their continent’s security. And the war in the Middle East is consuming finite resources and diverting attention from other security topics. In this challe

Source: Bernd Dittrich / Unsplash WASHINGTON — Earlier last week, Ukrainian forces reportedly were forced to cancel drone missions amid sudden restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite service, that interrupted their communications. Ukrainian officials and military units reported dropped connections and lowered operation speeds, although the full extent of the disruptions and the reasons behind them remain unclear. By October 15, co

The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available. Source: ScanSpecialties The Russian threat rises and rises. The risks and costs from its shadow (and sometimes open) attacks are increasing, and at some point soon there will be a serious crisis, perhaps brought on by the casualties from a successful version of the Kremlin’s bungled strike at Leipzig Airport in Au

Source: Alexey Larionov / Unsplash From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war. So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin

Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital. Photo by Marina Militare The alliance cannot sustain collective defense if its citizens doubt why it exists, distrust what it says, or come to believe it is responsible for the threats it confronts. Public trust in NATO should be seen as a key part of Europe’s security infrastructure. Soci

Russia’s abuse of civilians in occupied Ukraine is in the news, but it’s far more widespread than realized. Source: h_kharkov/Instagram Russia’s attacks on civilians and refusal of humanitarian aid for besieged frontline Ukrainians in the occupied territories have become a powerful symbol of the Kremlin’s barbarism. In recent weeks, the results of this anti-humanitarian campaign have been highlighted in the small, occupied town of Oleshky. Conditions are critical in the town,

The Kremlin-directed attacks on Europe are a sign of weakness. Europe must craft a robust new response to raise the pressure on Russia. Photo: Panzerbrigade 45 Litauen Facebook page Europe’s response to Russia’s increasingly ferocious attacks on Ukraine and a widening shadow war campaign against European NATO has been familiar: strategic restraint. That strategy is increasingly outdated. Something new is needed. Hybrid warfare operates in the space between strategic necessity

The increased focus on drones can assist militaries in many ways, but this technology is far from a panacea. Corsair Autonomous Vessel / Picture source: Saronic On July 12, three explosives-laden Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) motored into an enemy port, maneuvered past whatever defenses may have been in place, and blew up a drydock cradling a submarine undergoing maintenance. If the USVs had been Ukrainian and the target had been Russian, the robot raid would have been old

Building a supply chain independent from China is impractical. For now, leverage data, connectivity, and automation to reduce risk. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine How can the US and other democracies safely use drones, including those made in China or using Chinese components? Commercial and civilian drone use has expanded in recent years and will undoubtedly continue to grow as tech evolves. Drones use the airspace in ways that challenge existing regula

Ukrainian and foreign fighters with experience of the front are scouring the globe to find the best technology to see off Moscow’s forces. Ukraine, with limited manpower, needs asymmetric advantages wherever they can be found. Innovation is decentralized across many Ukrainian units, and across the country, volunteers, engineers, and soldiers are working hand-in-hand to develop new technology. But there’s a limit to commanders’ capacity to withdraw soldiers from the front to t

Source: Darnytsia District State Administration Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal has warned that Moscow is likely to expand attacks on the country’s civilian population and critical infrastructure in the coming months as Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to finally break Ukraine’s resistance. “Russia’s goal now is to destroy our water supplies,” commented Shmyhal in an interview with Politico this week. “Last winter they targeted electricity and heating, but you c

Source: Lithuianian Armed Forces Lithuania’s security environment has fundamentally changed over the past decade. Public and institutional thinking, however, has not fully adapted. Lithuania is no longer operating in peacetime. Alongside sustained Russian rhetoric about a future conventional invasion, Lithuania is already facing an ongoing hostile campaign below the threshold of open conflict, eroding the distinction between peace and war. Those actions go beyond traditional

The Kremlin’s on-again-off-again campaign to intimidate and disorientate European allies is picking up once more. Galati, Romania / Source: Digi24 Russia’s shadow war against NATO allies has moved southwards, with three drone breaches of Romanian airspace in as many days, and a surge of other incursions in recent weeks. Together with another attack on Poland, where a Russian cruise missile struck 100 km (62 miles) from the country’s eastern border on July 30, the incidents su

By Taine Noble / Unsplash Russia launched 126 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July 2026, the New York Times reports. This figure represents a new monthly record since the start of the full-scale invasion as Moscow steps up the bombardment of Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. The recent surge in missile attacks comes as Ukraine runs short of air defense ammunition, leaving the country virtually defenseless against the Kremlin’s ballistic blitz. Russian President V

As news from the front makes Vladimir Putin’s demands for peace with Kyiv look more absurd, Ukraine and its allies must push for justice. Why would Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or any outside mediator, want to talk with Putin? Even if a ceasefire was achieved, as Serhii Plokhy argues in David and Goliath (Harvard Ukrainian Studies, February 2026), it would not bring lasting peace. Illustrative photo. A children's toy in a destroyed house in Sumy / Stas Yurchenko

Russian Navy Day celebrations. July 26, 2026. Freeze frame from the IZ.RU video Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced widespread ridicule this week following Sunday’s dramatically downgraded Russian Navy Day celebrations, with detractors claiming the sorry spectacle has underlined his failure to secure Russian airspace against Ukrainian drones. Russia’s annual Navy Day festivities have traditionally served as an opportunity to flex the country’s maritime muscles. In the

When Putin’s mouthpieces talk about something, there’s always a reason. Russians have renewed cause to worry. It has been a long time coming, but ordinary Russians are now experiencing a fraction of the horrors inflicted by their regime upon their neighbor. Now too, they’re hearing their state-directed media hint about a darker future of mass mobilization for the despot’s war. Unlike Russia’s military, Ukraine’s armed forces are not targeting civilians, but everyday life is n