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As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approached the four-year mark in early 2026, the international media widely reported that the war had now lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison made for attention-grabbing headlines, but it was not entirely accurate. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine War did not begin in 2022; it started eight years earlier in 2014. Efforts to end the war must reflect this reality. Despite

For decades, Western defense strategy assumed that technological superiority ensured victory. That assumption proves false in modern conflict. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Conflict is being shaped less by the performance of advanced systems than by the ability to produce, sustain, and regenerate them at scale. Mass is the new buzzword, along with non-admiring references to “exquisite” high-end systems There is now a realization of a growing gap between

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials An unidentified object crosses into Lithuanian airspace from Kaliningrad and is quickly picked up by NATO radar systems. It’s small, fast, and unregistered. Shortly thereafter, three more similar objects joined in formation. NATO aircraft are scram

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

From Texas to Alberta to Catalonia, the Kremlin amplifies separatist causes abroad while jailing those who voice similar ideas inside Russia. The Kremlin routinely accuses other countries of instigating “colour revolutions” and backing separatist movements. Given the Kremlin’s well-documented flair for projection , it comes as little surprise that Moscow engages in exactly the kind of behaviour it denounces by backing separatist movements in Western countries, both openly and

Source: Kremlin.ru The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine recently entered a fifth year and has now been underway for longer than the entire cataclysmic conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany during World War II. This historical comparison does not flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has turned veneration of the fight against Hitler into an unofficial state religion. While Red Army troops played a key role in the Nazi defeat and managed to advance th

New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities. Over the past year, this author reviewed court records, indictments, and investigative reports to build what is probably the first open-source database of major known cryptocurrency money-laundering schemes.   It includes 164 cases spanning roughly two decades and shows roughly $350bn in illicit flows have moved through crypto-lin

Have you ever paused at a glossy video promising that somewhere out there, families flourish effortlessly, women glow with confidence, and there are simply no gender issues to speak of? A growing chorus of YouTubers and lifestyle commentators, often paid by the Kremlin , paints precisely that picture of Russia. In their telling, it is a haven that has struck the “perfect balance” between conservatism and feminism. Russian women, they say, combine devotion to family with ambit

This article reflects key arguments from a debate hosted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) on 16 January 2026 Ukraine is central to European history One of the most persistent distortions in discussions about Russia’s war against Ukraine is the assumption that Ukraine is historically marginal, an “edge case” recently pulled into European affairs. This assumption is not only wrong; it actively reproduces a Kremlin-centred view of history. Ukraine has been a core s

The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil. Wagner Group mercenaries in Africa. Photo: Grey Zone / Telegram The Russian Duma is about to adopt a law permitting the extraterritorial engagement of the armed forces to free Russian citizens arrested or detained by foreign courts. The government commission on legislation has just approved the respective draft legislation.

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n

Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the outbreak of hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories (TOT) have faced a steadily tightening system of information control. This process accelerated dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Today, an estimated 5 to 6 million people living under occupation exist in a prolonged state of information limbo. They are cut off from Ukrain

Russia is in serious trouble from a ballooning budget deficit. Rising oil prices are unlikely to change the math. Source: Oneindia War in the Middle East is pushing oil prices up, to the delight of the Kremlin — but the rise may prove too short-lived and too modest to save the Russian government from otherwise imminent spending cuts this year. Just two months into 2026, the Kremlin’s budget is already shot to pieces. On March 3, Brent climbed to $83 a barrel , its highest sin

Russia’s dependence on American technology shatters the Kremlin’s invincibility narrative, leading to a slowdown in advance on the front. Claims of Russia’s invincibility became a central element of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine as we examined in our recent article . Faith in the greatness and self-sufficiency of the Russian army has been turned into a mantra of Kremlin propaganda. However, the war against Ukraine has shown the world that this narrative, like the myth

Some young people resist Kremlin pressure to create a generation of Putin-supporting nationalists. The West must recognize and support them. Russian anti-war activist Maxim Lypkan / Source: memopzk.org “Wars are not won by generals, but by schoolteachers,” Vladimir Putin said in 2023, in a statement that has become a cornerstone of his approach to youth indoctrination. The regime is determined to reshape young Russians’ minds by replacing critical thinking with militarized pa

Russia’s poorest people face a grim choice — an existence of grinding poverty, or gambling your life and limbs on the regime’s imperial adventure. Erik Romanenko / TASS Russia’s war in Ukraine is not being fought by a united “multiethnic people,” as Vladimir Putin likes to claim. The enormous burden of the fighting and the death toll has been disproportionately borne by the peoples of the poorest and most remote parts of the country. New analysis by The Bell shows that the h

Europe’s reliance on US payment networks has become a strategic vulnerability that worries policymakers. After AI chips and cloud computing, Europeans have woken up to another American-dominated technology to worry about — payment systems operated by Visa and Mastercard. France’s  Aurore Lalucq , one of the European Parliament’s leading voices on financial services, recently expressed fears that Washington might suddenly “cut off” Europe.” Europe must build an alternative, “a

Russia’s use of cryptocurrency to bypass sanctions has exposed a gap in the international community’s attempts to throttle Moscow’s war machine. Photo: Agency «Moscow» / snob.ru The emergence of the A7A5 stablecoin represents a transformative shift in global financial evasion.   Until now, the international community has relied on the dominance of the US dollar and the SWIFT system to enforce economic order, but the rise of ruble-backed digital assets suggests a sophisticated

Seizures of sanctions-busting oil tankers have triggered a new wave of disinformation from the Kremlin. A recent uptick in manipulative narratives about Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ suggests that the Kremlin is getting increasingly nervous about its ability to evade European sanctions on the export of Russian oil. Just as the Kremlin uses oil tankers flying false flags to transport Russian oil overseas, it uses false claims pushed by its foreign information manipulation and interf

The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast. Could Western armies adapt as quickly? As the worst winter in many years settled across Ukraine late last year, the 600,000-strong Russian invasion force innovated to embrace the cold — and briefly gained a tactical edge all along the 700-mile front line.   The Ukrainians innovated right back, ultimately blunting that edge. That dance — measure versus countermeasure — should reassure frie