The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses as Washington turns away.
If you ask an official or expert in the Baltic states about developments on the other side of the Atlantic, you typically hear a variation on “very bad.” But they then add a request to focus on what we can do in practical terms — on Ukraine, on defense, and on NATO. It’s easy to make things even worse, they say, so it’s time for less talk and more action.
Baltic public opinion is predictable and more depressed. Typically, what you hear on the streets is “when the Russians come [and it’s when, not if], can we rely on the Americans?”
And their fear is real. For a long time, the Baltic Sea region has been a focal point of escalating tensions between Russia and NATO. Lithuania’s latest intelligence assessments highlighted medium- to long-term risks associated with Russian military capabilities near NATO’s eastern flank.
Are things really as bad as they seem? While challenges are evident, the key question remains: is there still room for strategic maneuvering, or are we witnessing an irreversible decline in security?
There’s no question the return of President Donald Trump made the Baltic region alarmed. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — historically reliant on strong transatlantic ties — now face a changing geopolitical landscape where US commitments to NATO and European security are increasingly uncertain.
A defining aspect of the Trump administration’s approach has been its transactional view of alliances, challenging long-held assumptions about US engagement in Europe, questioning allies’ democracies, making threats over Greenland and introducing tariffs.
Further complicating the geopolitical landscape is Trump’s warm engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and sending signals widely interpreted as appeasement. This has been marked by the reframing of Russia’s decision to start the Ukraine war, the suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing (since resumed), voting with Russia at the United Nations and ambushing Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on February 28.
It has led to speculation that Washington is pivoting to an approach that prioritizes great power bargaining over values-based alliances.
The Baltics also arose in that infamous Oval Office meeting. Answering questions, Trump explained he is committed to Poland, then hesitated for a moment before adding: “The Baltics . . . they got a lot of . . . it’s a tough neighborhood too, but we’re committed.” It’s doubtful champagne was uncorked in Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn on hearing this less than ringing endorsement.
Despite the uncertainties and challenges, the Baltic states remain determined to maintain robust partnerships with Washington while supporting Ukraine, strengthening regional security and promoting European defense and greater self-reliance.
With Russia’s military threat increasing, American “boots on the ground” have become more crucial than ever.
Lithuania has hosted a US heavy tank battalion since 2019, which is scheduled to remain until 2026, and has encouraged the continued presence of US troops. Vilnius also welcomes the US military presence in Poland, particularly near the border between the two countries at the Suwałki Gap, where Russia is reported to be bolstering its troop strength.
For a long time, the Baltics, and Lithuania in particular, have been loyal and steadfast supporters of US and NATO military engagements worldwide, for example in Bosnia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. US-Baltic military-to-military cooperation has also been remarkable.
The Pentagon continues to provide the Baltic States with solid defense support (including some recently renewed programs) aimed at enhancing the region’s defense capabilities, interoperability with NATO, procurement of advanced military equipment, improving deterrence and resilience against potential threats, particularly from Russia. Lithuania has placed numerous orders with the US defense industry and is actively seeking additional forms of cooperation.
In order to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, Lithuania is finalizing arrangements for the permanent deployment of a German army brigade, which is expected to be completed by 2027. Vilnius is also developing an independent division-level command to enhance its defense capabilities in line with NATO’s regional strategy.
At the same time, the Baltic states have reinforced defense cooperation with Poland and the Nordic countries, and committed to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), to ensure stability amid US unpredictability.
Lithuania certainly cannot be accused by the White House of shirking its responsibility to pay for NATO. It has pledged 6% of GDP to defense, advocated for a minimum target of 3% for EU members, and is supporting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s €800bn ($873bn) ReArm proposal.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has also called for a robust military strategy that includes enhanced air and missile defense capabilities, production of ammunition and rapid troop deployment mechanisms.
Concerns over nuclear threats, particularly in view of a diminished US commitment to Europe, have intensified discussions on European nuclear deterrence. Baltic leaders have stressed the importance of strategic deterrence, including discussions on extending France’s “nuclear umbrella.”
They are also actively throwing their weight behind a diplomatic solution that won’t sideline Ukraine. Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė went further by emphasizing that effective diplomacy requires strength, citing Al Capone’s supposed statement that “the only good negotiation is when you have a gun on the table.”
Lithuania has proposed a six-point action plan aimed at supporting Ukraine and European security, including direct financial contributions to Ukraine’s defense industry, stronger economic sanctions on Russia, and accelerated EU membership for Kyiv.
Instead of panicking, so far the Balts are navigating the winds of change. They continue to engage constructively with the US administration to advocate for Ukraine and make the case that Russia is using hybrid and gray-zone tactics to weaken the West and drive a wedge into transatlantic relations.
Strengthening EU security and defense frameworks, maintaining diplomatic engagement with Washington and reinforcing military capabilities remain essential to safeguarding the Baltic region’s security.
The Baltic states, long considered NATO’s frontline defenders, are now at the center of Europe’s evolving security architecture. Through sustained investment in defense, increased coordination with European partners, and continued advocacy for strong transatlantic ties, the Baltic nations can ensure their sovereignty and security in an increasingly uncertain world.
By Eitvydas Bajarūnas. Eitvydas Bajarūnas is an ambassador in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania, and currently a Center for Europe Policy Analysis (CEPA) Visiting Fellow. Article and pictures first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.
