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The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late
While Russia's hybrid tactics are not new, their scale and sophistication in the digital age present unprecedented challenges. By Eitvydas Bajarūnas Executive Summary Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies — disinformation, cyber, sabotage, coercion — b
Dec 8, 2025


The Baltic: A NATO Lake With Crocodiles
Is the Baltic now a NATO lake? Changing strategic geography, and the accession of Sweden and Finland to alliance membership might make it seem so, but the reality is more fraught. NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea / Source U.S. Navy Eight of the Baltic Sea states are now in NATO, and just one littoral country, Russia, is not. That might seem a mismatch of force — the so-called NATO lake — but appearances can be deceptive, and no one should underestimate the ability of Moscow’
Dec 5, 2025


Russian imperial impunity is the key obstacle to a lasting peace in Ukraine
Foto: Jurij Beljat poligonmedia.io US President Donald Trump’s latest bid to broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days, with officials from Washington, Kyiv, Moscow, and across Europe all seeking to shape the contours of a possible agreement. For now, discussion has centered on immediate matters, such as the wording of security guarantees. However, the far deeper historical roots that have long driven Russian violence
Dec 4, 2025


Awake But Groggy: Europe’s Shadow Warfare Guardians
The EU is doing well in some areas but as attacks rise, much more continent-wide cooperation is needed. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials The purpose of shadow warfare attacks on European countries by Russia and its proxies is multifaceted: to test the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, to destabilize societies and governments, and to provoke reactions that undermine
Nov 20, 2025


Aesthetics: Border Control
Art can deliver a powerful geopolitical message — so be careful. By Edward Lucas Source: State Border Guard Republic of Latvia One of the pleasures of my annual visit to Venice is seeing how the countries that I know best present themselves at the Biennale, the international summer-to-autumn cultural festival that features alternately art and, this year, architecture. The current crop includes an Estonian exhibit on home insulation, Lithuania on trees, Ukraine on roofs,
Nov 19, 2025


Punchlines: Wagner and Narva
Estonia responds to Russian trolling with ridicule. By Edward Lucas Source: Estonian MFA Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries are not the kind of people you want to see on your doorstep. So it was unwelcome news in Estonia when border guards spotted the group’s distinctive flag (skull and lightning bolts on black) on a Russian patrol boat on the Narva river. All the more so because Estonia is battling lazy journalism that depicts its eastern border city as a likely Russian tar
Nov 10, 2025


Unmuzzled: German Spies
Political meddling has long hampered German intelligence and security. Not any more. By Edward Lucas Penetrated by the opposition, paralysed by legal obstacles and subject to political interference, Germany’s intelligence services were for decades seen as at best useless, and at worst outright harmful. I remember a British spook in cold-war Berlin in the 1980s joking: “If you want Gorbachev to know something quickly, tell the Germans in strict secrecy: it will be on his desk
Oct 29, 2025


From social media to weapon factories: how Russia traps African women in war production
What looks like a dream job abroad is, in reality, a conveyor belt into Moscow’s war machine. Influencers generally promote beauty...
Oct 16, 2025


Magic Weapons: Drones
As Europe dithers, Russia’s successful drone offensive intensifies. By Edward Lucas Source: Land Forces of Ukraine From Munich to Lviv is...
Oct 15, 2025


An EU Security Base on the Black Sea
The EU’s renewed focus on the Black Sea has created an opportunity for Romania, Turkey and Ukraine to shape a stronger defense against...
Oct 6, 2025


Putin is escalating Russia’s hybrid war against Europe. Is Europe ready?
Source: EUvsDisinfo Russia and Belarus conducted large-scale military exercises in mid-September as the Kremlin sought to put on a show...
Sep 30, 2025


Moldova’s Voters and the Russian Bear Paw
Moldovans are preparing for an election that will determine their future in Europe amid “unprecedented” Russian interference. Can they...
Sep 23, 2025


Pick and Mix: Ukraine Opens an Amazon for Weaponry
Allowing army officers to order the kit they need, when they need it, has revolutionized Ukrainian procurement and dramatically improved...
Sep 16, 2025


A strong Ukraine is the only realistic security guarantee against Russia
Photo: Land Forces Of Ukraine Facebook page Western leaders were in upbeat mood on Monday evening following their unprecedented White...
Aug 29, 2025


A New Western Strategy for Russian Aggression
After years of trying to force Russia to halt its aggression, the West may eventually have to reconsider its risk tolerance to achieve a...
Aug 26, 2025


Sensors on the Baltic Frontline
Russia is now blending cyber interference, underwater sabotage, and manipulation of maritime law to gain tactical advantage without overt...
Aug 13, 2025


Putin Building African Springboard for War on West
Russia’s military engagement in Africa has grown since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in a deliberate and cost-effective strategy to...
Aug 11, 2025


Flight Risk: Baltics Scramble to Counter Hybrid Drone Threat
Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises. By Eitvydas...
Aug 5, 2025


Russia’s Cyber Warriors Assail NATO-Linked Private Companies
The West’s private sector has still not understood the threat posed by Russian cyber intelligence groups. That’s foolish. Source:...
Jul 8, 2025


Gulag 2.0 — Russia Reopens the Camps
New legislation working its way through Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament foreshadows a harsh crackdown across Putin’s despotic state....
Jul 4, 2025
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