Yielding Crimea Would Weigh Heavy on Ukraine

If Ukraine sacrifices Crimea in return for promises of peace, it will set a precedent for further conflict, and split the country.

There are numerous sticking points between Russia and Ukraine, making agreement almost impossible. Both sides have tended to focus on what comes after a ceasefire but Ukraine, under US pressure, has adjusted its position to agree to an unconditional pause in the fighting for 30 days. And Russia has not.

Some of that played out on May 15 direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

One of the most divisive issues is territory, and it strikes at the heart of Ukraine’s identity. Russia wants recognition of the land it has grabbed in Ukraine, while Kyiv has slowly, reluctantly, come to the conclusion that the return of currently occupied Ukrainian territory will not be possible any time soon.

As a result, the departure point for negotiations is that Ukraine will tacitly, very grudgingly, operate under the assumption that currently occupied lands will remain de facto in Russia’s hands. 

The key words here, as they have been all along, are “tacitly,” “currently occupied,” and “de facto”. Ukraine is not going to announce any open, formal, permanent recognition that these stolen lands, including Crimea, are de jure part of Russia. Kyiv is not in a position to determine which territories it can give away and which it cannot, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said any conversation about ceding Crimea and legitimizing its seizure is a non-starter.

An obvious way for Kyiv to justify its position is to say such a step would breach its Constitution. Others might say, however, that ending this horrific war will require some painful decisions from Ukraine, including some that break its Constitution.

But conceding any territory would open a Pandora’s box in relation to all other currently, or potentially, occupied land. Once a nation starts trading away its territories it is on a slippery slope, a precedent is created, and stopping it becomes so much harder.

And why should Crimea be singled out? What Russia did between February and March of 2014, first occupying Crimea, then conducting sham referendums, was wrong then and remains wrong now. The fact that Crimea has been in Russia’s hands for 11 years does not alter this.

Time does not change the circumstances, as was clearly stated in the “Crimea Declaration” signed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo under the first Trump presidency in 2018. Citing the precedent of a 1940 declaration by Acting Secretary of State Sumner Welles over the seizure of three Baltic States by the Soviet Union, Pompeo said unequivocally that Crimea should never be recognized as a part of the Russian Federation.

If the current administration considers changing that posture, and perhaps recognizes Crimea as part of Russia in a reversal of President Trump’s first term in office, it is likely to damage the credibility, reputation and influence of the US. Ultimately, that is Washington’s business, but the reality is different for Ukraine.

What benefits would Ukraine gain if, theoretically, it decides to acquiesce on Crimea? Would it mean Russia would withdraw from the other currently occupied territories? No. Would it make negotiation on other items easier? No. On the contrary, if Ukraine gives in on Crimea, it would only simplify Moscow’s claims to other lands.

The instructive case is 2014, when, by deciding not to defend Crimea, Ukrainians hoped they would satisfy Russia’s expansionist appetite and bring an end to it. But it only reinforced Moscow’s imperialist urges, as was clear with its further aggression in Donbas.

The moment Zelenskyy starts trading away Ukrainian land, he will do severe damage to his domestic political standing. His ratings are high when he is seen as a leader presiding over valiant war efforts, rallying the country around the flag, and standing for Ukraine’s interests, as he was seen to do in the White House on February 28.

Any action to the contrary, such as giving up Crimea, would lead to turmoil in Ukraine and major infighting. Moscow would welcome a divided opponent, and it may be part of the Kremlin’s plan, but Washington should know better. Pushing Ukraine to formally let go of Crimea is a danger not just to Ukraine, but to the entire world order.

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By Dr. Volodymyr Dubovyk. Dr. Volodymyr Dubovyk is a Non-resident Senior Fellow at CEPA. Article first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.