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Don’t Know: Even Now

As crises loom, questions still outnumber answers.


By Edward Lucas.

Lithuania’s Snow Meeting is less famous than Davos. But the night-owl session that precedes the public part of the annual security conference is a gourmet buffet for anyone interested in European security. A couple of dozen top decision-makers, talking frankly in a closed session, share insights and concerns. 


I am the only person to have attended every Snow Meeting, since 2008. But this year I was struck by the breadth of the discussion. Surely at this point, the issues should be clearer? Here is a non-exhaustive list of what we disagree on. 


Trump. Is the new US president the harbinger of an apocalypse in transatlantic security, or a badly needed disrupter? Conversation was buzzing with news of the president’s acrimonious conversation with the prime minister of the ultra-loyal American ally Denmark. Do past sacrifices in US-led wars in faraway places count for nothing in this transactional age? Or is this just another bump in the road? Trump will—perhaps—huff and puff, but in the end do nothing. In short, buckle up—or bail out? 


Russia. Seen one way, Putin is heading for disaster. Soviet-era military stocks are exhausted. The economy is popping rivets. And all for so far trivial territorial gains. Russia will take a decade or more to recover from its misbegotten adventure in Ukraine. All we need is patience and determination. It will work out fine. 


Seen another way, the picture is bleak. Ukraine has paid a terrible price. It is running out of soldiers. The front is crumbling. Western support is splintering. Putin has shown that nuclear blackmail works. Now he is reaping his reward. Without a dramatic increase in support, Ukraine is toast—and the Baltics are next. 


Europe. Crises forge unity. Just as the financial meltdown created the banking union, and the pandemic forced the European Union to change its borrowing rules, now the security crunch is fueling the continent’s much-awaited defense union. Yes, it’s messy. But the smoke and noise show construction is underway. Europe is emancipating itself from American tutelage and the world will be all the better for it. 


‘Not so fast’ comes the argument from the other side of the room. Europe is flailing. All we see is a few fancy toys. The components of a modern military – sensors, nukes, logistics, the command, and control to integrate everything on the battlefield— are lacking. It will take a decade or more for Europeans to fill the gaps left by the United States. And Russia will be ready far sooner. 


Britain. Keir Starmer’s government is a mess. Nobody should take post-Brexit UK seriously now. It lacks the military, diplomatic, and economic heft to exercise leadership in Europe. But—is that someone singing in the corner?—Britain is still the only nuclear power capable of deterring Russia, a cultural flagship and an intelligence powerhouse. Don’t write the Brits off yet. 


China. If we want to keep Americans interested in Europe, then we must show the new administration that we are interested in containing China. That means standing up to Chinese Communist Party bullying over Taiwan, friend-shoring our trade and investment, and curbing Beijing’s mischief-making in our own societies. 


Alternatively: stay out of rows that don’t concern us. It’s quite possible that Trump will do a deal with Xi Jinping. The top priority for Europe is prosperity and stability, not random acts of geopolitical egotism. 


Germany. Europe’s indispensable powerhouse, emerging from the Zeitenwende stronger and more decisive? Or a crashing disappointment, crippled by domestic strife? Your call. 


The date for next year’s Snow Meeting is not fixed. But I think the topics are. 

 

By Edward LucasEdward Lucas is a Non-resident Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). Article and pictures first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.

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