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The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available. Source: ScanSpecialties The Russian threat rises and rises. The risks and costs from its shadow (and sometimes open) attacks are increasing, and at some point soon there will be a serious crisis, perhaps brought on by the casualties from a successful version of the Kremlin’s bungled strike at Leipzig Airport in Au

Source: Alexey Larionov / Unsplash From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war. So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin

Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital. Photo by Marina Militare The alliance cannot sustain collective defense if its citizens doubt why it exists, distrust what it says, or come to believe it is responsible for the threats it confronts. Public trust in NATO should be seen as a key part of Europe’s security infrastructure. Soci

The Kremlin-directed attacks on Europe are a sign of weakness. Europe must craft a robust new response to raise the pressure on Russia. Photo: Panzerbrigade 45 Litauen Facebook page Europe’s response to Russia’s increasingly ferocious attacks on Ukraine and a widening shadow war campaign against European NATO has been familiar: strategic restraint. That strategy is increasingly outdated. Something new is needed. Hybrid warfare operates in the space between strategic necessity

Source: Lithuianian Armed Forces Lithuania’s security environment has fundamentally changed over the past decade. Public and institutional thinking, however, has not fully adapted. Lithuania is no longer operating in peacetime. Alongside sustained Russian rhetoric about a future conventional invasion, Lithuania is already facing an ongoing hostile campaign below the threshold of open conflict, eroding the distinction between peace and war. Those actions go beyond traditional

The Kremlin’s on-again-off-again campaign to intimidate and disorientate European allies is picking up once more. Galati, Romania / Source: Digi24 Russia’s shadow war against NATO allies has moved southwards, with three drone breaches of Romanian airspace in as many days, and a surge of other incursions in recent weeks. Together with another attack on Poland, where a Russian cruise missile struck 100 km (62 miles) from the country’s eastern border on July 30, the incidents su

Source: 427th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems "RAROG" When NATO leaders gathered in Ankara on July 7–8, they made counterdrone defense the summit’s signature industrial commitment, pledging more than forty billion dollars over five years, a new NATO counterdrone marketplace, and a fivefold increase in drone-operator training by the end of 2027. The commitment is driven by a growing sense of urgency in a Europe that has discovered that the simplest and cheapest weapons c

As international efforts to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue, it is also vital to look beyond the battlefield and address the issue of Ukraine’s recovery. This will shape Europe’s future for decades to come, with profound implications for European security and the democratic world’s ability to respond to international aggression. Photo: Petro Poyman/MAIDAN.ORG.UA Since the early stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the discussion over Ukraine’s recovery and rec

Although the US government lifted an export control order on Anthropic’s artificial intelligence model, the damage to transatlantic ties remains. Illustration: Steve A Johnson / Unsplash The episode has sharpened Europe’s dilemma over digital sovereignty. Instead of accepting a false choice between depending on US AI software or building an independent European AI capability, policymakers on the continent should follow the example that is already being set by industry and mix

Any new European defense system must have the continent’s most battle-hardened military at its heart. Step forward, Ukraine. Source: Facebook/GeneralStaff.ua There are many lessons from Europe’s biggest war in 80 years, but one stands out as absolutely essential. Ukraine has shown time and time again, and with growing frequency, that Russia can dish it out, but can’t take it. Ukraine’s resolve and innovation, its ability to fight and beat Russia, demonstrate its unique value

NATO’s fragmented responses to Russia’s “accidental” border incursions are enabling Moscow’s shadow war. Galati, Romania / Source: Digi24 On the night of May 29, two Russian drones crossed into Romanian airspace, flew roughly 18km (11 miles) into NATO territory, and struck a residential building in the city of Galați. Two people were injured, and a large fire swept through the neighborhood. The incident was reported as an accident, an unintended consequence of Russian strikes

The war’s end will mark the start of a race to secure the peace and make the continent the author of its future. When G7 leaders gather in Évian on June 17, where they will be joined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they will confront a strategic backdrop profoundly different from a year ago. In mid-2025, the transatlantic consensus was gripped by a grim, deterministic idea: that Russia was locked into a sustainable war of attrition where time and mass inherently favored th

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Europeans are increasingly speaking of Ukraine as a shield protecting the continent from Russian aggression. This recognition is certainly justified, but it also carries a risk. Amid all the talk of Ukraine’s growing military strength, there is a danger that this could encourage complacency over the country’s ability to bear the current security burden indefinitely. Changing attitudes toward Ukraine were on display at the r

Europe will struggle to defend itself against Russia without the aid of Ukraine’s battle-tested legions. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Russia’s recent missile and drone strikes and follow-on attacks against Ukraine represent a cruel exercise in signaling. Following a brief ceasefire, Russia revealed that it can breach Ukraine’s aerial defenses. By deploying an unparalleled barrage, Putin arguably sent a veiled warning to Europe that their cities and fac

The EU's new defense industry program has the right architecture. The factories, the workers, and the political will are another matter. Rheinmetall AG artillery ammunition factory in Lithuania / A. Pliadis / Lithuanian MOD Europe’s new €1.5bn ($1.8bn) defense industry program has a line item nobody expected. Factories built to produce counter-drone weapons can now claim EU money to protect themselves from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Commission adopted the work progr

For decades, Western defense strategy assumed that technological superiority ensured victory. That assumption proves false in modern conflict. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Conflict is being shaped less by the performance of advanced systems than by the ability to produce, sustain, and regenerate them at scale. Mass is the new buzzword, along with non-admiring references to “exquisite” high-end systems There is now a realization of a growing gap between

Russia’s shadow war in Europe is escalating. Allies need a new strategy before it’s too late. Prime Minister Tusk confirmed the incident on Warsaw–Lublin railway line was an act of sabotage. Source: Donald Tusk / X/ Press materials An unidentified object crosses into Lithuanian airspace from Kaliningrad and is quickly picked up by NATO radar systems. It’s small, fast, and unregistered. Shortly thereafter, three more similar objects joined in formation. NATO aircraft are scram

Bottom lines up front Europe is entering a period of strategic indecision: some capitals are doubling down on deterrence and defense, while others are reviving calls for engagement with Moscow. Renewed appeals to re-engage Russia do not reflect improved strategic conditions but uncertainty over how to respond to Russian aggression and the breakdown of the rules-based order. Containment remains the only viable European approach to Russia, but it must be updated to reflect the

Before taking a deeper dive into the 4th EEAS Report on FIMI Threats , let’s first look at the pro-Kremlin narratives observed over the past week. Pro-Kremlin FIMI activity focused on distorting both security developments and Europe’s economic outlook. One example was the false claim that the rocket targeting a joint US-UK military base located on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia was launched from a submarine in a false flag attack by the US . Unsubstantiated false fla

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n