Awake Now? The US and Europe

The new US National Security Strategy is surprising only for those determined to ignore reality.

By Edward Lucas

In an ideal, imagined world, the US is a wise, friendly, and eternal mentor to its European allies. It uncomplainingly shoulders the burden of military and diplomatic leadership. It does not push its own interests too hard, whatever American voters may want. 

Against the background of such wholly unrealistic assumptions, the new US National Security Strategy indeed makes shocking reading. It avows an interventionist approach to the domestic politics of European allies, to make them—in US eyes—stronger and more useful. It explicitly undercuts support for Ukraine, promotes rapprochement with Russia, and implicitly aims to weaken the European Union. The language is crude, harsh, even contemptuous.

Yet not one bit of this is new. Some elements were heralded in Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference. Most of it goes back decades. “America First” was not invented by Donald Trump, even though the president articulates it with unprecedented bluntness. The US has always been the senior, agenda-setting partner in the transatlantic relationship. All US administrations have a mercantilist streak, bringing them into conflict with the European Commission’s similar ambitions: a protected single market at home, with robust trade diplomacy abroad. Many US administrations have flirted with the notion of promoting ties with the Kremlin, regardless of European interests (remember the Obama “reset”, or Bush senior’s “Chicken Kiev” speech?). 

True, the US likes to coat its geopolitical agenda in the language of shared values. But those values change: previous administrations intervened vigorously, even scandalously, in European politics to foil Soviet subversion. Now those muscles are being flexed again, against “wokery” and “globalism”.  

Instead of frothing with outrage at the new NSS, the Europeans should be asking themselves hard questions. Why are we surprised by this? What will happen if we do nothing? What can we still do to avoid that fate? 

The answer to the first question is shameful. Europeans for decades were naïve, ungrateful, stingy, and arrogant. They assumed that they were so important, their civilisation so exquisite, that allies and foes alike would be content merely to admire them. Not so. This is the age of the predator, as a brilliant new book by the Italian-French author Giuliano da Empoli explains. Whether it is tech giants wanting to brush aside tiresome rules on privacy, copyright, and child protection; kleptocrats wanting to turn money into power and vice versa; or imperial hegemons bent on expansion, the European Union is a big, flabby, and tempting target.

The answer to the second question is bleak. If Europe (including Britain and other non-EU countries) is not at the table, it is on the menu. It will be pulled apart by greedy and powerful outsiders—a fate akin to 19^th-century imperial China.

The third question should be burning a hole in every decision-maker’s desk. Europe’s economy is roughly the same size—$ 30 trillion—as the United States. Europe is rich enough not only to defend itself against its enemies, but also to bargain hard with its allies. 

A key paragraph in the NSS states that Europe is “strategically and culturally vital to the United States”. This is not a manifesto for isolationism, but for engagement. It is for the Europeans to ensure that this engagement is on their terms, by showing that unity (and diversity) makes them more effective allies, militarily, economically, and diplomatically. That would mean, for example, radically improving their defense and deterrence, boosting their supply chain resilience, improving their competitiveness (former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi has explained how), and strengthening social cohesion. 

Too difficult? Then sit back, let the NSS unfold—and stop complaining.

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By Edward Lucas. Edward Lucas is a Senior Fellow and Senior Advisor at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He was formerly a senior editor at The Economist. Article first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.