China — The Real Winner From Russian Victory in Ukraine

Kremlin success would benefit the Beijing regime in a whole number of ways, including the theft of Ukrainian military technology.

What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning? 

That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vladimir Putin, a deal in which Ukraine effectively loses its sovereignty, would also be warmly welcomed by China as an endorsement of its efforts to tilt the outcome. 

China has gambled on Putin and would expect to collect its winnings. And given the now-extraordinary mismatch in power between the two countries — China’s national wealth is more than eight times greater than Russia’s — Putin’s diminished and dependent country would have little choice but to agree. 

What would China demand as a reward?  

We can discern the outlines from Chinese behavior. Despite a long litany of denials, it has not only aided the Russian military campaign, but it has also tried to reap battlefield knowledge. 

Russia’s enormous efforts to build a drone industry were possible in considerable measure because of Chinese (and Iranian) help, including the deployment of Chinese engineers at Russian factories. Chinese officers have also toured the frontline to understand drone combat. If Ukraine’s fractured but highly innovative drone industry fell into Russian hands, the Chinese would expect to benefit. 

And that would only be part of a broader exploitation of Ukraine’s security assets: defense innovation that has made Ukraine a case study for many Western governments and companies, and Western weapons systems deployed by Ukraine that would fall into Chinese-Russian hands. This, by the way, is what happened when Nazi Germany was handed Czechoslovakia along with its extremely advanced arms industry — many of the tanks that invaded France were Czech. 

Russia would, of course, itself benefit from a Ukrainian tech transfer flowing directly to Moscow, and would become a far more formidable military power as it adopts Ukrainian and Western capabilities. But China, with its advanced manufacturing base and speed of adaptation, would be the ultimate winner. Which, of course, is a serious concern for the US military that may one day have to fight them. 

There are geopolitical wins too from Ukrainian defeat or dismemberment. 

European NATO has, for some years, been pivoting toward Asia-Pacific by sending aircraft carrier task groups and signing basing agreements with regional powers that clearly understand the threat China poses. But with a resurgent Russia menacing its borders, there are reasons to doubt its sustainability or utility. One critic called the policy “borderline reckless,” given the paucity of European military capabilities and the Russian threat.  

So China could reasonably hope that the presence of Russia’s victorious legions along NATO’s extended eastern flank would persuade Europe to stay well away from Asia. 

It might have no choice. Despite evidence that Russia has been badly mauled in Ukraine, its revitalized arms industry is producing large amounts of equipment, and it will find the manpower to garrison a new western border with NATO. 

For example, there are questions about the fate of Ukraine’s bloodied but combat-tested armed forces. Amounting to around 900,000 personnel, some might leave for Western Europe. But for the remainder, the Kremlin could be expected to induce or intimidate some into serving for Russia. This is not a theoretical prospect; Moscow has already forcibly conscripted tens of thousands of Ukrainians in the occupied territories.  

There would be much for China to exploit in this new world. After all, it would present some relatively easy wins. Like Russia, China loses when the West is united and clear on its aims. Like Russia, China works to exploit European divisions.  

It would therefore present itself as an honest broker between Europe and the Kremlin, and offer what Xi Jinping likes to call “win-win deals”, which are in fact one-sided in Beijing’s favor and that damage continental security (remember Italy’s Belt and Road participation, which it extracted itself from in 2023). 

The broader aim would be to peel Europe away from the United States and so strip Washington of old allies, leaving a debilitated and neutered alliance. 

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By Alina Polyakova and Christopher Walker. Dr. Alina Polyakova is President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) as well as the Donald Marron Senior Fellow at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). 

Christopher Walker is Vice President at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Article first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.