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New research demonstrates the fast-growing role of cryptocurrencies to finance military aggression, sanctions evasion, and other covert activities. Over the past year, this author reviewed court records, indictments, and investigative reports to build what is probably the first open-source database of major known cryptocurrency money-laundering schemes.   It includes 164 cases spanning roughly two decades and shows roughly $350bn in illicit flows have moved through crypto-lin

The Kremlin’s war against international law reaches beyond mere words and now includes the use of heavily armed military squads operating on foreign soil. Wagner Group mercenaries in Africa. Photo: Grey Zone / Telegram The Russian Duma is about to adopt a law permitting the extraterritorial engagement of the armed forces to free Russian citizens arrested or detained by foreign courts. The government commission on legislation has just approved the respective draft legislation.

The cyber abilities of the EU’s 27 member states are variable, but the best-prepared can benefit from helping the laggards. One year has passed since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered US Cyber Command to halt all offensive cyber operations and planning against Russia. The decision came as elements of the defense community were calling for a more offensive posture in the cyber domain, given that Russian operations against NATO allies and other countries in the European n

Five recurring false narratives the Kremlin uses to justify and distort its war against Ukraine. Russia has carried out online disinformation and FIMI campaigns against Europe and Ukraine for over a decade. After the illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, these activities grew rapidly in scale and intensity. The Kremlin now uses information manipulation as a key tool in its confrontation with the West. Alongside the war in Ukraine, Russia is also waging a

The Kremlin blames others for not extending The New START Treaty. But Moscow played a big role in undermining the Treaty long before its demise. On 6 February 2026, The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty, expired . As that happened, the Kremlin both launched and continued FIMI campaigns that sought to minimise Moscow’s responsibility for the Treaty’s lapse, blame the expiration on outside actors, generate doomsday paranoia, and proclaim a new nuc

For decades, television was considered the primary mouthpiece of propaganda. The digital age, however, has elevated a new and potentially more dangerous instrument of influence: video games. Under the guise of entertainment, they shape worldviews and political narratives, making propaganda subtle, scalable, and effective. Unlike passive media, video games offer players not only a story but an experience in which they actively participate. As a result, ideological messages emb

The pace of technological change on the Ukrainian front lines is now exceptionally fast. Could Western armies adapt as quickly? As the worst winter in many years settled across Ukraine late last year, the 600,000-strong Russian invasion force innovated to embrace the cold — and briefly gained a tactical edge all along the 700-mile front line.   The Ukrainians innovated right back, ultimately blunting that edge. That dance — measure versus countermeasure — should reassure frie

Europe needs to get on the front foot to tackle Russia’s hybrid warfare, a Polish deputy defense minister warned as he unveiled details of a new anti-drone systems. Warmate loitering munition. (Source: Polish Ministry of National Defense) Cezary Tomczyk, secretary of state in Poland’s Ministry of Defense, has provided new details about a new  €2bn (£2.3bn) anti-drone system  which will be the largest of its kind on the continent, and able to detect and neutralize enemy drones

F-16 fighter jets patrolling over Greenland. Photo: The Danish Armed Forces Bottom lines up front: In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility. The White House is correct that Greenland and the waters around it are a strategic asset—one that Europe has failed to recognize in recent years. If Europe wants to ensure that no outside power can exercise control over Greenland, then it

At the end of 2025, a clear pattern stands out in Russian disinformation: the persistent construction of an image of strength in the face of growing constraints. Throughout the year, Kremlin-aligned outlets amplified exaggerated or false claims of military success in Ukraine, presenting marginal advances as decisive victories. As discussions about future negotiations gained prominence, this narrative of invincibility served a specific purpose – to shape perceptions, set the t

Europe needs to share intelligence and exploit legal “gray zones” to tackle Russia’s sanctions-busting shadow fleet. Russian shadow fleet tanker Kiwala detained off the Estonian coast between the island of Aegna and the port of Muuga, east of Tallinn, Friday, April 11, 2025. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR The fleet, hundreds of ships strong, enables Moscow to circumvent curbs on oil sales and engage in sabotage, particularly in the Baltic, posing security, environmental, and economic

Russia will step-up its shadow war on Europe in the New Year, attacking infrastructure and disrupting democracy in a bid to exploit Western disunity. Russian drone on the roof of a barn in Moldova / Source Belcy 24 In 2026, the Kremlin will seek to demonstrate that Russia retains the initiative and remains a great power despite its economic and military decline. This is designed in part to emphasize a country on the brink of historic success and to build on images of Presiden

Russia’s Geran attack drones have morphed from crude versions of Iranian Shahed UAVs into an affordable and flexible strike system, with deadly results. Russia’s Geran 2 attack drone / Source Sergej Flesh Facebook page Moscow’s forces have launched nearly 50,000 Geran/Shahed drones into Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of 2022 and shifted to a near-continuous rhythm of strikes that have overwhelmed defenses, disabled infrastructure, and killed families in their homes.  

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin believe their autocratic political and economic systems will gradually defeat the West’s democracies. How can they be stopped? President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin / Photo: Sergei Bobylev, RIA Novosti The liberal international order, which has dominated world affairs since World War II, is now collapsing, and China and Russia appear increasingly confident that top-down dictatorial regimes will fill the void. S

While Russia's hybrid tactics are not new, their scale and sophistication in the digital age present unprecedented challenges. By Eitvydas Bajarūnas Executive Summary Hybrid warfare is not episodic, but a permanent feature of Russia’s strategy, rooted in Soviet “active measures” and enhanced by modern tools like artificial intelligence–enabled information manipulation and cyber operations. It exploits the seams of open societies — disinformation, cyber, sabotage, coercion — b

Kremlin success would benefit the Beijing regime in a whole number of ways, including the theft of Ukrainian military technology. What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning?  That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vlad

Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, there has been growing alarm over the support that Moscow is receiving from fellow authoritarian regimes including Iran, North Korea, Belarus, and China. However, while Western officials have publicly raised concerns over material support for the Russian war effort, the issue of cooperation in the information sphere has received less attention. This is short-sighted. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has d

In many parts of Africa, memories of colonial exploitation, past foreign interference and broken promises remain vivid. These wounds – some still open – make fertile ground for narratives that tap into historical trauma, anti-Western sentiment and cultural conservatism. It is precisely this emotional terrain that Russian disinformation seeks to exploit. The TruthAfrica project was born out of a growing need to track and challenge the insidious spread of propaganda across the

The Kremlin has a vision for the future. It should make everyone very worried. By Gabrielė Klimaitė-Želvienė  A palm reader examines a woman’s hand and shakes her head. Something terrible and dark lurks in her future. The client sees the palmist’s frowns and becomes frightened.   “Will I get sick?”  “No,” says the palm reader.   “Will I die then?”   The old woman again shakes her head.   “So what will happen?”  “Nothing at all,” the palm reader says. “Nothing will ever change

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is among the most technologically advanced wars the world has ever seen. But while the rapid developments taking place in drone warfare tend to attract most attention, the cyber front of the conflict also offers important lessons for international audiences. The Russian state and affiliated groups have been refining their cyber warfare tactics in Ukraine ever since the initial onset of Russian aggression in 2014. In January 2022, Ukrain