The impending arrival of a new US President provides opportunities to improve the measures and seek transatlantic unity.
There’s a whole literature of sanctions-failure studies and articles now available. The arguments vary but the essence is the same — what’s the point in even trying to hurt Russia’s economy when the effort cannot succeed?
Western fecklessness, rapacious intermediaries, grindingly slow administrative responses to loopholes, and fears of what a Russian collapse might mean are all blamed. Discussion of sanctions successes (see here, here, and here) are more muted.
Now, with a new Trump administration forming in the wings, there’s another voice joining the debate — Russians eagerly anticipating that their door to the world may be reopened.
The Kremlin’s so-called Valdai Club, a think tank of sorts, issued a recent paper advocating for the easing of sanctions, addressed to Donald Trump and Hungary’s Putin-friendly leader, Victor Orbán.
And that should tell us all we need to know. For those who argue sanctions are failing, the question arises: why is Russia so keen to have them lifted?
It’s true that certain measures are indeed failing. That’s largely because countries like Germany and Greece have offered backdoor support to the Russian economy through sanctions evasion (sending goods to neighbouring countries for onward passage to Russia) or simply by providing shipping for the Kremlin’s key energy exports. The European Union (EU) could have stopped this, but chose not to.
Europe’s silent profiteering from the war (this of course doesn’t apply to everyone, step forward Poland) has been gratefully received and understood in the Kremlin. Ever alert to Western weakness, it now calculates that a new US administration might ease or lift the 16,500 or so measures imposed since the all-out war began.
This is also calculated to exploit the wavering resolve of certain EU member states, particularly Orbán’s Hungary. His pro-Russian stance and efforts to re-establish business ties with Moscow have long threatened to weaken the EU’s unified position. Such internal divisions are precisely what Putin hopes to leverage to his advantage.
Russia’s dependence on Western technology has become a significant vulnerability. The exodus of Western firms has impacted critical sectors, from aerospace to energy. Yet, extensive loopholes remain. While Europe has drastically reduced imports of Russian piped gas, Russia’s LNG imports surged by 38% in 2023 compared to 2021, making it the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier after the US. Countries like Spain and Belgium are significant importers. This continued flow of Russian LNG puts in doubt the EU’s goal of eliminating Russian hydrocarbons by 2027 and provides a steady income stream for Putin’s regime.
The stakes extend beyond economics. Intelligence reports indicate that Russia is actively rebuilding its military capabilities and intensifying sub-threshold tactics, including cyberattacks, airspace incursions, and sabotage, to undermine NATO’s resolve. Allowing Western businesses to resume operations in Russia would enable the Kremlin to once again access advanced technologies critical to its military and economic resurgence, which it has struggled to procure from non-Western partners.
With sanctions in place, Russia relies on China for many high-tech components. While these are critical to the Russian war effort, they are often inferior to what is available in the West. Removing sanctions would enable Russia to access advanced Western technologies and to use its now-deep economic tries to China, to accelerate and build systems that could surpass Western standards.
Allies on both sides of the Atlantic must resist any temptation to lift sanctions in pursuit of short-term economic gains. Any such concessions would provide Russia with the tools needed to rekindle its economy and military, thereby expanding its capacity to wage war. Moreover, this would open new avenues for Moscow to engage in hybrid warfare and espionage, exploiting Western dependencies to further its geopolitical ambitions.
This is no time to weaken sanctions. As Eddie Fishman, the leading US sanctions expert has advocated, now is actually the time for the Biden administration to ramp up pressure that’s been allowed to east in the past 18 months.
“To present himself as an honest broker in peace negotiations, Trump will probably be reluctant to bolster sanctions early in his presidency,” Fishman wrote. “But Biden can do Trump a favor by shoring up the sanctions on his way out the door. The first step Biden should take is to close the massive loophole for Russian energy” by sanctioning payments for Russian energy. This might cause a price spike but its effects would be limited —US inflation is at its lowest for years.
This would reassure European allies and stiffen the backbone of the waverers. It could also pave the way for a strict and cohesive post-war sanctions regime for the US and EU, with mechanisms to prevent individual member states from circumventing these measures.
If not, and the US moves toward a lifting or easing of measures, the EU must remain steadfast.
Maintaining the economic front against Russia is as critical as military deterrence. Any erosion of this policy would have far-reaching consequences, enabling Moscow to regroup and reignite its aggressive ambitions.
By Maciej Bukowski. Maciej Bukowski is a non-resident fellow with the Digital Innovation Initiative Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He is a climate diplomacy and energy security expert, and a PhD candidate at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations at the Jagiellonian University in Cracow. Article and pictures first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.
