The Arctic region, once an isolated expanse of ice and silence, is rapidly transforming into a key geopolitical focal point.
This is how seriously the US has taken its presence in the Arctic — it currently has just two functional icebreakers, compared to Russia’s fleet of at least 46. Addressing this disparity has become an urgent, strategic necessity.
And yet the contract to build three new vessels is five years behind schedule and costs have ballooned to $5.1bn from $2bn. The first ship was due to be operational this year, but that is now delayed to 2029.
The US this year agreed with Canada and Finland for a consortium to build more vessels and share expertise, which will be critical in producing what American sources say will be a need for 70 to 90 allied vessels in the coming years.
With the Arctic ice melting at unprecedented rates, new shipping lanes and vast reserves of natural resources — oil, gas, and rare minerals — are becoming accessible. This transformation has raised the Arctic’s strategic value, drawing in global powers seeking to establish or expand their footholds.
The US, Canada and their NATO allies are in a high-stakes race with Russia and China to secure access, resources and influence in this rapidly evolving territory.
The allies say they aim for a cooperative Arctic, but Russia is taking a starkly different approach. Expansive claims, military fortifications and joint initiatives with China indicate a push to consolidate control.
The Russo-Chinese partnership threatens to disrupt the Arctic’s fragile balance, highlighting the urgent need for a NATO response. The alliance’s member states, particularly those with direct Arctic borders, face the challenge of asserting sovereignty and maintaining security while fostering international cooperation and respecting indigenous rights.
Estimates indicate as much as 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil, 30% of its untapped natural gas, and a wealth of rare earth minerals are locked beneath the Arctic seabed. The importance of such resources for energy security and the technologies of tomorrow make the region a critical arena for economic influence.
The Arctic is also poised to reshape global trade as the Northern Sea Route becomes more navigable, shortening shipping distances between Asia and Europe by as much as 40%.
For NATO, this shift presents both an opportunity and a risk. An open, secure Arctic could bolster economic stability for all the alliance’s members, while a contested or militarized Arctic under Russian and Chinese control could stymie trade, hinder access to resources, and restrict freedom of navigation.
Russia has taken an increasingly aggressive stance, claiming large swathes of the Arctic seabed as its sovereign territory. It has fortified the Kola Peninsula, established an array of Arctic bases, and expanded its icebreaker fleet.
The Kremlin has also conducted large-scale military exercises in the region — some with China — signaling its intent to assert control over the Arctic and its resources. Meanwhile, China, which has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” is making its own inroads — funding infrastructure projects, conducting research, and partnering with Russia to develop and access the Northern Sea Route.
The burgeoning alliance between Moscow and Beijing threatens to upend regional stability as both nations pursue interests contrary to NATO’s values of transparency, the rule of law and shared access.
The Western alliance did seek an agreed path through the Arctic Council, which looked for joint agreement on a range of issues including the environment. Seven of the eight members are NATO members and Russia also had a seat. But the body’s activities were frozen once Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine in 2022.
NATO members must now accept that times have changed, and adapt their Arctic strategies accordingly. For Canada and the US, this means bolstering investment in icebreaking, enhancing surveillance, and fortifying Arctic infrastructure.
Increased surveillance is also essential to monitor Russian and Chinese activity in the region. Satellite reconnaissance, maritime patrol aircraft and unmanned systems would help NATO better understand and respond to developments in real time, while improved radar installations and early warning systems will be critical to enabling a rapid response to any threats.
NATO allies are also working to expand and modernize Arctic infrastructure. Airstrips, ports and bases in the High North serve as essential logistics hubs, enabling forces to operate in such a challenging environment and allowing for quicker deployments and sustained operations.
And it’s not just a military priority. Improved infrastructure is also vital for search and rescue operations, scientific research, and environmental monitoring — all of which underscore a commitment to a peaceful, stable Arctic.
The alliance must also ensure the rights of indigenous communities are respected. Indigenous peoples have inhabited the Arctic for millennia and possess invaluable knowledge vital for sustainable development and environmental stewardship in the region.
NATO nations must engage indigenous communities as partners, consulting them on policies that affect their lands and livelihoods. Respecting indigenous rights and incorporating their perspectives is essential not only for ethical reasons but also for ensuring stability and trust.
The Arctic is one of the world’s most vulnerable ecosystems and, while Russia and China pursue resource extraction with little regard for environmental impact, NATO’s Arctic strategy must prioritize sustainability. This means setting high standards for Arctic operations, limiting ecological disruption and investing in research to better understand climate change’s effects on the region.
To address these multifaceted challenges, NATO must present a unified Arctic strategy, emphasizing deterrence, cooperation, and resilience. A security framework that prioritizes shared access, respects territorial sovereignty, and mitigates risks is essential to counter Russian and Chinese ambitions.
As the biggest authoritarian states seek to redraw the rules in the High North, NATO must take decisive action, investing in infrastructure, enhancing surveillance, and building partnerships with indigenous communities. Only by standing united and proactive can NATO ensure an open, stable Arctic — one where free nations, not authoritarian powers, set the terms.
Written by Doug Livermore. Doug Livermore is the Senior Vice President for Solution Engineering at the CenCore Group and the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves as Chair of the Advocacy Committee for No One Left Behind.
Source the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The article was prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.
