Moscow’s hybrid war on the West needs a robust and smart response, which means coordinated action from the European Union.
The hybrid threats from Vladimir Putin’s regime blend covert tactics, such as disinformation, cyber-attacks, and economic manipulation, to exploit legal and political vulnerabilities. It is extremely hard to attribute blame, and respond effectively, without escalating conflicts — and the Kremlin knows this.
Over the last decade, European Union (EU) member states have developed a clear understanding that the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare is a significant security challenge that requires coordinated countermeasures and constant vigilance. If there were any doubts at all, see the latest November 17-18 allegations of an attack on NATO critical infrastructure by a Chinese merchant ship in the Baltic Sea.
This was one of eight policy priorities set out for the new European Commission in a CEPA report published in October, amid evidence that Russia is increasingly employing such techniques to influence Western decision-making and public opinion, including on Ukraine.
Kremlin tactics have combined “classic” hybrid (or grayzone) threats with kinetic action or acts of sabotage. Influence operations are also on the rise in the EU neighbourhood.
Since 2016, the EU has developed ambitious proposals through the Joint Framework on Countering Hybrid Threats, and by agreeing a single position on increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities, both of which are foundational documents for the bloc’s response.
They were later bolstered by the establishment of an EU hybrid toolbox, a comprehensive collection of methods for countering cross-domain threats. Reacting to increasing disinformation, the bloc proposed a broad Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) concept, while hybrid threats were also broadly addressed in the EU Security Union Strategy.
In light of such preparation, why has the West been so ineffective at preventing Russian grayzone tactics, and how can the EU improve its response?
It is encouraging that four European Commissioners-designate have been tasked with addressing hybrid threats, disinformation, and resilience.
Vice-President Henna Virkkunen will focus on digital security and disinformation, while High Representative Kaja Kallas will oversee responses to hybrid threats in foreign policy, including EU-NATO collaboration. Michael McGrath will concentrate on internal resilience and democratic processes alongside Hadja Lahbib, who will take responsibility for resilience and crisis management.
An October report by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, requested by the new Commission, recommends enhancing EU joint capabilities, improving cross-border coordination, and aligning military and civilian readiness to ensure a robust and integrated European response.
But relying on Commissioners and producing reports — however smart they are — won’t deter Putin. It is political will at the highest level and decisive action that will truly make a difference.
Strategies have been agreed, and thorough mechanisms established, but still, the EU’s drive to counter hybrid threats isn’t biting. Russia has been let off the hook.
An effective EU hybrid threats policy needs the following 10 key objectives and initiatives:
Make countering hybrid threats a top priority on the EU agenda. The West is at hybrid war with Russia — statements are not enough.
Introduce deterrence-by-punishment as a key element of the strategy. This must include punitive measures such as sanctions on individuals and entities, asset seizures, and legal actions.
Establish a list of Russia’s vulnerabilities and those involved in malign activities, while also identifying key vulnerabilities and the most likely targets of Russia’s hybrid attacks.
Support independent Russian-language media to counter disinformation. Using trusted platforms, the EU can deliver credible information to counter Kremlin propaganda.
Accelerate the implementation of the Niinistö Report proposals.
Continue strengthening technical and intellectual systems to monitor hybrid threats, including the EU Hybrid Fusion Cell and Stratcom units.
Establish a comprehensive EU-wide doctrine for gray-zone deterrence, set response protocols for hybrid threats, and strengthen EU regulations to protect strategic sectors from foreign interference and covert ownership to exclude hostile states.
Conduct joint EU exercises and training to enhance readiness, focusing on countries frequently targeted by hostile aggression.
Establish clear and robust measures to protect elections from hostile propaganda and foreign interference.
Use EU regulatory mechanisms to encourage online platforms to tackle disinformation under the Code of Practice on Disinformation.
Enhance societal resilience by involving civic society, the media and the IT sector in national efforts to counter hybrid threats. Use creative national responses, such as Lithuania’s Debunk.eu.
By Eitvydas Bajarūnas. Eitvydas Bajarūnas is an ambassador in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania, and currently a Center for Europe Policy Analysis (CEPA) Visiting Fellow. Article and pictures first time published on CEPA web page. Prepared for publication by volunteers from the Res Publica - The Center for Civil Resistance.
